2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

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Rich Kraetsch
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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by Rich Kraetsch » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:41 pm

You have to remember, Elgin doesn't HAVE to go for the Heavyweight Title, he can just as easily say "You know what, let me get a title shot against Omega to avenge my buddy Tanahashi"

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skeach101
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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by skeach101 » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:19 pm

Rich Kraetsch wrote:You have to remember, Elgin doesn't HAVE to go for the Heavyweight Title, he can just as easily say "You know what, let me get a title shot against Omega to avenge my buddy Tanahashi"
Here's why I'm pretty sure the IC title isn't getting defended at Invasion Attack. On the Kevin Kelly Purocast interview, he said the next time he's coming back to do English commentary would be Wrestling Dontaku. To me, this tells me it's Kenny Omega is defending at that show. From that interview, I am making an inference that Omega will be a key to attracting the English audience.

As far as the NEVER title, I doubt NJPW has faith in Shibata/Elgin to main event Sumo Hall.

I'm not saying Elgin in the finals is impossible.... but I think its unlikely

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by skeach101 » Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:04 am

► Show Spoiler
This is fun. I love playing with numbers, so let me see what I can find out from these numbers. See if I can see who is in the running to win this thing. To make it easier, I'm going to make the assumption that Naito beats Yano, and NOBODY has Yano in the finals. I'm assuming everyone that doesn't have Naito as the winner at least has him in the finals That leaves 4 potential outcomes:

1. Elgin vs. Naito in the finals; Naito Wins
2. Elgin vs. Naito in the finals; Elgin Wins
3. Goto vs. Naito in the finals; Naito Wins
4. Goto vs. Naito in the finals; Goto Wins.

Let's break these down with the data we have:

1. Elgin vs. Naito in the finals; Naito Wins

If Siva or Will Young have Elgin in the finals under this scenario, they are the winner. If they BOTH have it, the tiebreaker will decide the winner.

If Siva AND Will Young do NOT have Elgin in the finals under this scenario, then it can go to CRVX or Richard Jaegar if one of them has Elgin and Naito in the finals.

If they ALSO don't have him in the finals, then it goes to Doug Fowler, Jody Plante, Josh Katzker, and Matt Prior to see if one or more of them have Elgin in the finals.

If in the VERY UNLIKELY Scenario that NONE of those people had Elgin in the finals, then it would go down to the 12 pointers that have Naito as the winner, in which point, they would have a chance to enter the tie-breaker with Siva and Will Young.

2. Elgin vs. Naito in the finals; Elgin Wins

If this happens, Chris Duarte is the winner.

3. Goto vs. Naito in the finals; Naito Wins

If Siva or Will Young have Goto in the finals under this scenario, they are the winner. If they BOTH have it, the tiebreaker will decide the winner.

If Siva AND Will Young do NOT have Goto in the finals under this scenario, then it can go to CRVX or Richard Jaegar if one of them has Goto and Naito in the finals.

If they ALSO don't have Goto in the finals, then it goes to Doug Fowler, Jody Plante, Josh Katzker, and Matt Prior to see if one or more of them have Goto in the finals

If in the VERY UNLIKELY Scenario that NONE of those people had Goto in the finals, then it would go down to the 12 pointers that have Naito as the winner, in which point, they would have a chance to enter the tie-breaker with Siva and Will Young.

Rich tweeted out that only 10% of entrants had Goto in the finals, so this is an interesting one to watch, as it's very reasonable that we have someone as low as the 13 point range pull an upset if none of the 15 or 14 pointers picked Goto.

4. Goto vs. Naito in the finals; Goto Wins.

This one would be a weird situation, in that ANYONE that has a realistic shot of winning this thing did NOT pick Goto. In fact, the HIGHEST person with Goto as the winner only has 7 points, Joe O'Brien. In this situation, it doesn't matter if Naito wins or not... what matters is that Goto beats Elgin.

If Siva or Will Young have Goto in the finals, then one of them win, or they do a tie-breaker if they both have Goto.

If Siva and Will Young BOTH have Elgin winning, then CRVX and Richard Jaegar have a shot.

If they ALSO don't have Goto in the finals, then it goes to Doug Fowler, Jody Plante, Josh Katzker, and Matt Prior to see if one or more of them have Goto in the finals

Then, like I stated above, it would go to the 12 pointers to see if any of them had Goto in the finals... in which case they would enter a tiebreaker with Siva and Will Young.

We'll see what happens.
Last edited by skeach101 on Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by sivapc » Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:41 am

thanks Skeach for the detailed breakdown.

*crosses fingers for my final and tie-breaker**

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by skeach101 » Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:02 pm

sivapc wrote:thanks Skeach for the detailed breakdown.

*crosses fingers for my final and tie-breaker**
Who do you have in the final?

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by sivapc » Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:03 pm

Elgin/Naito (like everyone else?)

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by skeach101 » Sun Mar 06, 2016 5:35 pm

sivapc wrote:Elgin/Naito (like everyone else?)
Will see. I'm Doug Fowler and I have Goto/Naito. From what I unserstand, only 10% have Goto in the finals, while 50%+ have Elgin. If it's Goto, I might have a shot at an upset.

Good Luck :)

Btw: nice call on predicting Yano all the way to the semi-finals. I'm betting not many expected that

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by ROH_Virginia » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:11 pm

haha, so what I'm seeing is I'm eliminated. Son of a! Should of picked Fale. Upset I didn't see that one coming. Not picking Tonga or Goto also killed me, because I couldn't get those points in the 2nd round.

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by skeach101 » Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:38 am

ROH_Virginia wrote:haha, so what I'm seeing is I'm eliminated. Son of a! Should of picked Fale. Upset I didn't see that one coming. Not picking Tonga or Goto also killed me, because I couldn't get those points in the 2nd round.
Yeah, I only missed two matches... both of them because of Yano

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by ssindelman » Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:39 pm

http://www.rohwrestling.com/news/kenny- ... tour-event

Omega won't be at RoH on 3/12. Makes me think he'll be at the NJ Cup finals event instead to accept Michael Elgin's challenge for the IC title.

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by skeach101 » Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:48 pm

ssindelman wrote:http://www.rohwrestling.com/news/kenny- ... tour-event

Omega won't be at RoH on 3/12. Makes me think he'll be at the NJ Cup finals event instead to accept Michael Elgin's challenge for the IC title.
IDK. I don't know if NJPW has confidence in Elgin/Omega to headline Sumo Hall.

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by Rich Kraetsch » Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:58 pm

skeach101 wrote:
ssindelman wrote:http://www.rohwrestling.com/news/kenny- ... tour-event

Omega won't be at RoH on 3/12. Makes me think he'll be at the NJ Cup finals event instead to accept Michael Elgin's challenge for the IC title.
IDK. I don't know if NJPW has confidence in Elgin/Omega to headline Sumo Hall.
Doesn't have to headline it can be the semi main to a random Okada one-off defense. The card in general is pretty stacked overall with some cool matchups across the board too.

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by Lawsoncomedy » Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:39 pm

Well I messed up. Part of what makes this fun is it's hard to predict.

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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by Rich Kraetsch » Sat Mar 12, 2016 4:27 pm

FINAL STANDINGS!

CRVX won the tiebreaker and the overall prizes, Richard came in 2nd and Doug in 3rd. Congrats to those three (you'll be contacted shortly regarding prizes). Thanks again to everyone who participated, be sure to support our sponsor IVPVideos.com and use coupon code VOICE when making a purchase for a nice little discount :)


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Re: 2016 New Japan Cup Pick'Em Standings (Updated: March 3, 2016)

Post by Joe O'Brien » Sun Mar 13, 2016 12:44 am

Hi

Thanks for running this I really enjoyed following it (my first pick em here)

What are the future plans for pick 'em

Wish I hadn't picked Evil to go all the way to the final (must have been smoking something lol)

Thanks Again

Joe

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