When Will Ospreay fully joined AEW’s roster in early 2024, many took it for granted that he would be main eventing AEW’s biggest show that year, All In from Wembley Stadium, where he would no doubt be challenging for the AEW World Championship.
In the Spring of 2024, this was just something that was assumed, to the point where there was a subsection of fans who were kind of annoyed that Swerve Strickland, whose elevation to the top had taken two years, was being positioned not as the undisputed main man of All Elite Wrestling, but as a belt pillow for the new guy.
That all of this had already been decided was news to AEW. To quickly put this assumption aside, they instead booked Ospreay to challenge Swerve at Forbidden Door and that match made abundantly clear who the top man in AEW at that moment was – it was Swerve. Swerve would wind up losing the belt at Wembley Stadium, but to Bryan Danielson, himself at the end of his own multi-year arc to capture the World Title. Ospreay was obviously still in an important match of his own, defeating MJF for the International Championship and it was all very nice and in the end it all made sense how all the pieces had fallen into place.
The discourse about Ospreay obviously being the one to main event had been a thing of the past for months by the time the show went off the air with Danielson’s moment of triumph.
The way the reporting at the time had described it, AEW had never really intended or even seriously considered Ospreay to main event All In. The story was always going to be Swerve and Danielson and the directions it would send them in. Those directions turned out to be them both getting their heads bashed in, in slightly different ways. In their minds, Will Ospreay would have plenty of opportunities in the future to main event Wembley Stadium. There was no rush.
Fast forward two years and everybody seems to agree that we’ve arrived squarely at “the future” and those “plenty of opportunities” are right now. It’s once again the basic assumption of the AEW fanbase that Will Ospreay is going to be main eventing All In 2026 at Wembley Stadium and he will be fighting for the AEW World Championship. Yes, I did just get done describing a scenario where we were all sure Ospreay was gonna main event at Wembley and when AEW heard about it, they went “Wait, what?”, but it feels a bit more likely this time, doesn’t it? After Ospreay failed to win the World Championship from Swerve Strickland in 2024 and fell in the Owen Hart Cup finals to Hangman Page in 2025, this feels like the right time. After a year off, All In is back in Wembley and there’s an obvious story that’s already playing out on AEW television. The last time he wrestled in England, Ospreay was badly injured and left on his back. Now, he’s returned but he’s struggling to find out who the post-injury version of Will Ospreay even is. Once he figures out who that is, he can take the same grueling journey that Hangman Page and Bryan Danielson took before him, win the Owen Hart Cup and challenge for the World Championship at AEW’s biggest show of the year in the main event of historic Wembley Stadium.
Now, AEW is not always the most predictable promotion. Tony Khan is very aware that his customers are a bunch of plugged in super smarks, so he likes to throw wrinkles into his stories on occasion and not do the obvious, telegraphed thing. But when a story is obvious simply because it’s the thing that makes the most sense and to do anything else would make no sense, Tony Khan almost always just does the thing that makes the most sense. He did it with Hangman Page and Kenny Omega in 2021. He’s probably going to do it with Will Ospreay in 2026.
Probably.
So if we can, in fact, take it for granted that we already know Ospreay is main eventing Wembley this year, that’s great, all we’ve gotta do is get him there. Little bit of Meeting With The Goddess in the form of Jon Moxley, maybe sprinkle in some Woman as Temptress via Callum Newman and the United Empire, reach some Apotheosis in the form of the Owen Hart Cup and bam! This Hero is ready to reach the end of his Journey. But there is one element that we don’t know. Who is the Abyss that Will Ospreay must cross? And no, I’m not talking about Joseph Park. Who will be the person he stands across the ring from in the main event of All In?
Who will enter Wembley Stadium as AEW World Champion?
It’s been a big question throughout all of 2026 and for a moment there, we seemed to be closing in on an answer, it seemed to be between two guys and then those guys fought and one of them won and we seemed to know what we had on our hands. But then a wrench in a big pink fluffy coat flew right into our assumptions and smashed ’em up good.
But really, did he?
Did Darby really smash up the plans for MJF vs. Will Ospreay? Surely, this is just a temporary reign. Darby was the original plan to defeat Jon Moxley at last year’s All In, but the timing with him and Mt. Everest just wound up not adding up, so it went to Hangman instead, so we’re doing Darby’s reign now and MJF is just gonna win it back at Double or Nothing. This is just one of those wrinkles we mentioned that Tony Khan loves to throw in, to keep things fresh, introduce a little bit of unpredictability. A little twist in the road, but at the end of the day, the road’s gonna wind where we’ve been assuming it will – MJF vs. Will Ospreay.
That was what I thought, until the May 6 Dynamite. Two things happened on that show that have made me significantly less confident that I know what the main event of All In is going to be. Where I once saw two, but really mostly just one true contender to face Will Ospreay, I now see close to half a dozen. We’ll go into those two things as we analyze all of these contenders, because that’s what we’re here to do today.
The rules are very simple. We’re taking it for granted that the main event of All In 2026 will be a match between Will Ospreay and one other man and we’re going to go over every possibility for who that other man could be. We’re going to look over what he’s accomplished in 2026 so far, examine his history with Will Ospreay, analyze his Path to Wembley and then finally, because we’re going All In (and before that, we’re going Double or Nothing), we’ll place some betting odds on each contender, for entertainment purposes only. There will be no kicking the can down the road another two years and no multi-man matches. There can only be one!
We have ten contenders to analyze, but before that, I want to take a brief stop on AEW’s Physically Unable to Perform List and just quickly comment on a few names there.
Tier 5: Physically Unable to Perform
AEW has a few pretty significant guys off TV right now. Is it possible that one of these men was at one point intended to face Ospreay at All In? If fortune smiles, is it possible they could get back in time to do it?
“Protostar” Kyle Fletcher
Before his injury, Kyle Fletcher was having a great start to 2026, winning the TNT Championship from Tommaso Ciampa, racking up three successful defenses and even tacking on a brief AEW World Trios Championship reign with Kazuchika Okada and Mark Davis. His only losses in 2026 so far were when the Don Callis Family dropped those titles to JetSpeed and Mistico and an untelevised trios match loss on an AEW House Rules show in Australia. Otherwise, Fletcher had a sterling record, 9-2 overall and 4-0 in singles matches. He would’ve had no issue laying claim to a shot at the AEW World Championship, had he not suffered a Meniscus injury in March.
From a story perspective, Fletcher and Ospreay have a long-standing relationship from their days together in the United Empire, to their hateful rivalry born from the Don Callis Family. Fletcher was Ospreay’s student, but after Don Callis got in his ear, Fletcher violently severed their relationship and they spent the next six months killing each other, culminating in Ospreay defeating Fletcher in a Steel Cage Match at Revolution 2025, a match that earned #11 on the 2025 Voices of Wrestling Match of the Year poll, after their previous two matches reached #20 and #16 on the 2024 poll. You know there’s no way Fletcher would let Ospreay have the last word in this rivalry. It’s only a matter of time before these two men clash over the greatest prize in All Elite Wrestling.
Unfortunately, we probably won’t see it any time soon, because Fletcher’s Path to Wembley involves finding a healing crystal and using it to stitch his meniscus back together. The severity of Fletcher’s injury has been kind of vague, I don’t think he has an exact timetable, but the way it was characterized when he went out was not optimistic. Not only do we not know the severity of the meniscus injury, it’s also been said he’s going to get some other injuries dealt with during this time off that could compound his absence. All told, it was kind of implied that he could very well be out for most of, if not the entirety of 2026.
Now, it’s wrestling, that could be an exaggeration. Make fans expect Fletcher is gone for the rest of the year so when he returns in July, it’s a great surprise. Now, having said all of that, I don’t even think Fletcher’s injury is very relevant to this discussion, because I don’t think Fletcher had a very good Path to Wembley anyway. Theoretically, yeah, he could’ve just gotten Darby at his most vulnerable and given him a Brainbuster on a skateboard filled with tacks or something. But, there’s an important thing to point out about that previous rivalry I mentioned. The last time Will Ospreay and Kyle Fletcher fought, Will Ospreay won. He put Kyle Fletcher behind him in the cage match. When Fletcher inevitably comes for revenge on Ospreay, it probably won’t be as champion, it’ll probably be as challenger. I don’t think Fletcher was ever going to be the man that Ospreay must defeat to become champion, I think it’s the reverse. If Will Ospreay does win the World Championship at Wembley, the doomsday clock for his title reign starts ticking when the Protostar is fully healthy.
In the meantime, odds for Fletcher are N/A. Sorry, the casino doesn’t accept bets for competitors unable to perform.
“Hangman” Adam Page
As far as accomplishments in 2026 go, uh, what’s the word for an anti-accomplishment? Hangman Page was having a great 2026, stacking plenty of singles wins and earning himself a shot at the AEW World Championship. That’s where the good news stops. As a result of losing the Texas Death Match to MJF at Revolution, Hangman is now under a self-imposed ban from ever challenging for the AEW World Championship again.
Hangman and Ospreay were connected rather strongly through their shared opposition of Jon Moxley and the Death Riders in 2025, culminating in them meeting in the finals of that year’s Owen Hart Cup. The match was utterly amazing, reaching third place in the 2025 Voices of Wrestling Match of the Year poll. Hangman won the match and the tournament, then a couple months later at All In Texas, he won the championship. So there’s an obvious element of Hangman being an obstacle that Ospreay has failed to conquer before. But what would Hangman’s Path to Wembley even be?
I mean, there is none, right? He can’t challenge for the World Title, so how can he possibly ever win it to defend it against Ospreay? Well, it has been repeatedly stressed that this is a stipulation Hangman is imposing upon himself, it’s not enforced by AEW. Hangman is no less than the heart and soul of AEW, the man chosen by the fans over and over again to be its leader. His Path to Wembley has nothing to do with his capability to win a wrestling match. All Hangman Page has to do is the one thing he has never done: Betray the people who love him. The last time Hangman Page lost himself and donned the “Black Hat“, it was out of pain, trauma and a misguided need for justice. With enough support and patience from his friends and from the fans, he not only walked himself back from the edge of the cliff, but he became the strongest, most confident version of himself we’ve ever seen. This is not that. If he breaks his promise now, there’s no going back. If Hangman Page is not bound by his word, then he is bound by nothing and a Hangman Page bound by nothing would be unstoppable. It’s not a matter of if he could win the World Championship and main event Wembley Stadium. It’s simply a matter of how many bodies he would leave in his wake on the way.
I give Hangman odds of 100:1 and for Will Ospreay’s sake, I hope I’m right.
“Switchblade” Jay White
Will Ospreay and Jay White have not crossed paths often in their career. Once in Ring of Honor and twice in New Japan. But did you know a fourth match between the two almost happened? Before Jay White left due to an injury he has yet to return from, he was booked for a match in the first round of the Owen Hart Cup against, you guessed it, Will Ospreay. Was this innocuous first round tournament match going to plant the seeds of a longer story between these two? One that would extend all the way to Wembley Stadium?
…probably not. We don’t even know if his hand is healed yet and even if it is, he was probably not earmarked for the main event at Wembley Stadium at any point. I just think it’s worth noting that before he went on his current year-plus hiatus, the last thing Jay White did was cut a promo building up a match between himself and Ospreay. I sure do hope they get to that match someday! It wouldn’t be as explosive as some of the other potential matches on this list, but there’s few people better at thinking their way through a match than Jay White. I am very certain that match would have everybody on the edge of their seat the whole time.
We’ll give Jay odds of 100:1 as well. One way or another, I just hope he comes back soon.
Tier 4: lol
Look, are either of the guys in this tier going to main event Wembley Stadium? I’ll spoil it for you now, no, they aren’t. But there’s still at least one thing that is interesting enough about their case that I think it is worth pointing out.
“The Bastard” PAC
From a strictly wins and losses perspective, PAC’s case is not a strong one. While he’s done very well in tag team matches, he’s lost two of his three singles matches this year, one to Darby Allin and one to Will Ospreay. Speaking of, PAC and Ospreay have wrestled twice, once for the International Championship and again earlier this year as part of Ospreay’s quest to get revenge against the Death Riders, who Will Ospreay is now allied with, kind of? So there’s definitely a connection there, at least. They’re also both Englishmen! Maybe Tony Khan could decide that an all-English main event is what’s needed to move some tickets! It’s possible!
For the record, PAC might have the most straightforward path of anybody on the list, because he already has a title shot lined up! He’s challenging Darby Allin at Fairway to Hell in just a matter of days! Or depending on when this goes up, a matter of day. Or, uh, a matter of “in the past”. Your Path is simple, PAC. You wanna main event Wembley? Get your ass to that golf course and beat Darby!
PAC’s odds are 100:1. He’s not beating Darby. Or, very likely, by the time you read this, he will already have not beaten Darby.
“El Toro Blanco” RUSH
Rush has already lost a match to Darby in 2026. Outside of that, he’s assembled wins against a series of also-rans, ranging from local enhancement talent to prospects like Adam Priest to BEEF. To my knowledge, Rush and Ospreay have never met in the ring, not even in a tag match or some multi-man. But holy moly, would these two beat the everloving crap out of each other if they ever did meet. Oh my god, the chops. The chops and the kicks.
But uh, the gist of this is, we’re all assuming that Rush has shown up on TV and started winning against enhancement talent every week to lead to something, right? And that something is probably a title shot against Darby Allin? In that case, again, it’s pretty straightforward. After Darby finishes whatever his latest challenge is, walk out and tell him YOU MESS WIT DA BULL, YOU GET DA HAAAAAAARNS, then kick his fuckin’ head off the next Wednesday.
Having said that, I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say Darby will attempt to mess with the bull and succeed in not receiving the harns. RUSH’s odds are 100:1.
Tier 3: Now Hear Me Out
This is where we leave the realm of fantasy. These are guys that are still unlikely but if you squint, you can see the case for them. These are guys who have spent most of 2026 firmly around the World Championship or otherwise have some significant connection to Will Ospreay. This is where we’re going to start seeing some real meat on the proverbial bone.
Andrade “El Ídolo”
Andrade has been the embodiment of “close but no cigar” in 2026. He’s kept stacking wins, one after the other, knocking down heavy hitters like Swerve Strickland, Bandido and even Kenny Omega. His goal all year has been to earn a shot at the AEW World Championship but every time he’s gotten close, he’s just slipped at the very end. He lost a #1 contender’s match to Hangman in Australia, he lost a match to Darby at Dynasty that Darby wound up converting into winning the World Championship. Each time he’s lost, he’s renewed his effort to win championship gold, something he finally successfully accomplished by defeating Yota Tsuji for the IWGP Global Championship. Is this a signal that whatever was causing Andrade to stumble at the finish line, he’s put it behind him?
To my knowledge, Andrade and Will Ospreay have never met in the ring, I don’t even think they’ve crossed paths in a backstage segment or anything. If Andrade ever participated in a beatdown on Will Ospreay or if he was standing in the background while Don Callis yapped about Will Ospreay, let me know. Their lack of interaction means the match would be a novelty, especially since to this point, nearly halfway into the year, Andrade has built himself a reasonable case for Most Outstanding Wrestler of 2026.
Having said all that, it’s a little strange that Andrade has spent all year so far trying to get a shot at the world title, it’s just slipped through his fingers twice and now the current champion is taking on all comers and he’s just kinda…chilling out? He seems more interested in antagonizing MJF than doing the thing he’s been trying to do for months now. Look, sometimes in wrestling, you’re not supposed to ask these questions. The reality is, Andrade has gotten a huge push since he returned, but he hasn’t gotten a “main event Wembley” push. If anything, he’s going with Jay White and Kyle Fletcher in the “challenges Ospreay after he wins” pile. For now, he has odds of 20:1.
…
…hey, wait a minute!
“Aerial Assassin” Will Ospreay
Look, this entire thing has been based on the idea that Will Ospreay is going to be entering Wembley as the challenger and we’ve been analyzing potential World Champions that he can challenge. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, we do have to at least consider the idea, what if we are correct that Ospreay is in the main event, but we’re wrong about how he’s going to get there?
What if Ospreay is the champion going into Wembley?
This would seem to go against the grain of standard wrestling psychology. Ospreay will be returning to England as the hometown hero (close enough, Essex is only an hour away from London), that would lend itself best to him being the challenger with the crowd willing him to win the title for the first time. Again, it’s one of those things we’re just kind of taking for granted because it’s the obvious tried-and-true wrestling thing to do. But is there a potential match-up that might make more sense with a different kind of dynamic?
Put a pin in this one. We’ll come back to it.
“Death Rider” Jon Moxley
The person Will Ospreay has been tied to more than anybody in 2026 must warrant a mention. Jon Moxley has been firmly positioned as the thing standing between Ospreay and the top of the mountain, a role he has never been a stranger to in AEW in general and at All In in specific. Moxley’s Path to Wembley could take a couple different permutations. The Continental Championship has been treated as a high-level championship for most of its existence. Moxley could simply continue his reign as Continental Champion all the way until August. A match for the Continental Championship hasn’t main evented a pay per view yet, but doing so at the biggest show of the year would elevate the title to true equal status with the World Championship, something that may be useful for more than the story of Moxley and Ospreay. It would be useful to establish another title as capable of main eventing pay per views for whenever Hangman comes back.
The other, more standard pathway is just that Moxley beats either Darby Allin or MJF at some point for the World Championship. That’s not impossible, Moxley has a long, complex history with both Darby and MJF. But it would be shocking, considering the last time he met both of these men, they both beat him, Darby quite definitively and there wouldn’t seem to be any reason to revisit either of these rivalries while both men are champions. Maybe Moxley would drop the Continental Championship first to oh, let’s saaaay, Hologram.
That is one reason why I don’t think either of those options are particularly likely. As mentioned above, Moxley is more positioned as the one who will prepare Ospreay for his final test, rather than being the test himself. I think Moxley is a clear candidate for a potential Owen Hart Cup match against Ospreay. Particularly because it would let Ospreay defeat Moxley without then having to deal with Ospreay winning the Continental Championship as we’re preparing him to challenge for the World Championship. That was a narrative tangle that kind of telegraphed the result of their first match.
You can never truly count Moxley out, though. He’s unambiguously the winningest, most pushed wrestler in AEW over the last two years, he’s more connected to Ospreay over the last year than anybody and if anything goes wrong, he’s always the one Tony Khan calls first. We’ll give Moxley 13:1 odds of scheduling Will Ospreay’s final lesson for Wembley Stadium, as either the Continental or World Champion. But if any plans go awry, he’s the one that could make a big jump very quickly.
Darby Allin
Darby’s put together a decent little 2026 for himself. He defeated PAC early in the year, finishing his sweep of the Death Riders. He had a feud with THE DOGS that culminated in him defeating Gabe Kidd in a coffin match, he beat RUSH, he even beat Andrade on PPV. Then, oh yeah, he BEAT MJF TO BECOME AEW WORLD CHAMPION! After climbing a literal mountain last year, Darby finally climbed the figurative mountain and became World Champion. A little later than I was hoping but you know what, it’s been every bit worth the wait. It Was Always Darby, baby.
As for a connection to Ospreay, there isn’t much, but there is something. Back in 2024, these two did make a pact to help each other defeat the Death Riders, but before Ospreay could help Darby, the Death Riders took Darby out for seven months, a favor Ospreay would unfortunately return when they did the same to him at Forbidden Door. They mostly missed each other due to the nature of their absences, but they did interact as allies a couple times. These two are mirrors of each other in a lot of ways, with the key difference being that Darby has done the thing that still eludes Will – in every sense of the word, he’s climbed the mountain. He’s won the big one.
Darby’s path to Wembley should be the simplest of everybody’s. Just don’t lose the championship! This shouldn’t be too tall of an order. Get through Double or Nothing, Forbidden Door and the rumored July pay per view. Three matches and you’re home free. Not easy, but very doable on a normal championship defense schedule. Darby is not on a normal championship defense schedule. He’s already defended the championship three times since he won it as of this writing and he has two more title defenses lined up and a contract signing for a third. He said it himself, he’s here for a good time, not a long time. He’s defending the title every Wednesday and apparently even tossing in a Saturday here and there too. If Darby were to keep up this pace, then by the day of All In, he’ll have wracked up somewhere around twenty five defenses, easily double the record set by MJF’s 406-day reign. Darby’s path is the hardest of anybody’s and he likely wouldn’t have it any other way.
I’m giving Darby odds of 10:1. This feels way too low for the current world champion, but that is the essence of Darby’s character and the essence of his reign and the essence of the reign just…doesn’t fit. Much as I kinda wanna talk myself into it with that idea of Darby and Ospreay being mirrors of each other and that being a good enough story, Will Ospreay trying to climb the mountain and win the big one against perpetual underdog Darby Allin just doesn’t feel right. I’m not even sure what that match would look like. Are we gonna get a long control period where Darby works over Ospreay’s neck? No, the match would be Ospreay throwing Darby all over the place like all of Darby’s matches and that would be the wrong energy for this situation. Not to mention, just to get here, Darby has to win like 20 more matches. You do have to respect the idea that Darby’s title reign can theoretically reach a point where it’s just so good that Tony Khan decides not to take the title off of him and Darby just rides the momentum of his stellar performances all the way to Wembley, but a lot more tickets would probably have to start being sold for that to happen. In reality, Darby will probably lose the title well before facing Ospreay becomes a concern.
But Darby better be lining up to challenge Ospreay again after that. WrestleDream 2026, back in Seattle: It Was Always Darby 2, baby!
Tier 2: Dark Horses
Now we’re talkin’. We’ve got four wrestlers left and I think all four of these men have a genuinely compelling case and not only clear but plausible paths to Wembley. I think these next two men have a longer shot than our final two, but to me, both of them present a very compelling opportunity. Personally, if I was picking the World Champion going into All In, it would be one of these two.
Swerve Strickland
If you’re looking for people in AEW who have history with both Darby Allin and Will Ospreay, there’s scant few that fit the role better than Swerve. The characterization of Swerve and Ospreay in AEW has been one of two brothers. Sometimes they fight, sometimes they team up. There’s always a balance of love and rivalry between them but consistently, Ospreay has been portrayed as the younger brother. He has never beaten Swerve. A significant part of the story of Ospreay’s match with Swerve at Forbidden Door was that Swerve possessed the killer instinct that Ospreay seems to lack. If Ospreay’s story in AEW must culminate with him finding that killer instinct, then The Most Dangerous may very well be the one to force it out of him.
As for the current World Champion, Swerve and Darby have been fighting longer than AEW has existed, going back to DEFY, EVOLVE and MLW. Swerve’s motivation is always to capture all of the power and all of the titles he can and as of recently, he seems to have tired of being a hero for the fans, instead choosing to go back to the merciless violent man he was at his peak. I’m sure he’s all too willing to let Darby break himself down defending the World Championship every week, wait until he’s vulnerable, take aim and land the Killshot.
There are a couple wrinkles here, though. The first one being that Swerve is currently targeting Bandido, a man who himself already possesses a title. Swerve hasn’t mentioned the Ring of Honor World Championship yet. That doesn’t mean when they clash that it won’t be for that title and if the title is on the line, there’s no guarantee Swerve wins it. Bandido could just be the man Swerve wrestles en route to challenging Darby for the World Title. But if the Ring of Honor World Championship is on the line and Swerve does win it, that would likely mean whatever he’s doing at Wembley, it’ll be about the RoH World Championship, not the AEW. It would also be a bit ironic if Swerve’s first World Title reign was plagued by assumptions that he was just holding it until Wembley for Ospreay to win it, to the point that AEW had to just do the match to dispel that notion, just for his second World Title reign to be him just holding it until Wembley for Ospreay to win it. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I do think there would be some Optics from that one.
We’ll give Swerve odds of 7:1 for now. I do think his heel turn had some slightly suspicious timing and while I do think more of Swerve than as a transitional champion, there is something so perfect about him being the one to defeat Darby and in turn be defeated by Ospreay. There’s potential for a lot of really compelling material between those three men.
“Rainmaker” Kazuchika Okada
This is my pick. This is the one I want. I want this to be the match at Wembley soooooooooo badly.
First of all, Okada and Ospreay’s history speaks for itself. Okada is (in storyline at least) the one who brought Ospreay into New Japan Pro Wrestling. Ospreay teamed with Okada and studied under him in Chaos for years, until Ospreay broke away and betrayed Okada to start his own faction, United Empire. They briefly rekindled their rivalry in AEW when they met in the finals of the 2024 Continental Classic, with Okada winning to retain his championship, but besides that, they have been kept suspiciously far apart. Even when Ospreay has been entangled with the Don Callis Family and there’s been no shortage of that, he’s never run into Okada. Granted, Okada’s time in the Don Callis Family has mostly just overlapped with the time that Ospreay was out due to his neck injury. But Ospreay had a brief run in with the Don Callis family in 2026, facing Hechicero and Mark Davis and there was still nothing resembling an encounter between him and Okada. Almost like they’re being kept apart for some reason. For something more important.
Second of all, the match would be fucking amazing. You’ve seen the Okada and Ospreay matches. You saw the one where it was Jr. Heavyweight Champion vs. Heavyweight Champion and Ospreay was still the understudy. You’ve seen the one where Okada didn’t wanna use the Rainmaker and he was trying to win all of his matches with the World Famous Money Clip, but then he finally used the Rainmaker on Ospreay. You’ve seen the Continental Classic Final from two years ago (#7 in the 2024 Voices of Wrestling Match of the Year poll!). Every time these guys wrestle, it’s incredible. Bear in mind, the two times they did wrestle each other at Wrestle Kingdom, the crowd wasn’t allowed to make noise! In the main event, for the World Championship, in front of tens of thousands of people, this would be an absolutely legendary match, possibly better than any of the ones they’ve had before.
Third of all…it could actually fucking happen! Okada is challenging Darby on the 13th! He has a Path To Wembley! Now. It’s not as straightforward as “Okada beats Darby on the May 13 Dynamite, holds the title until Wembley, faces Ospreay”. That’s not gonna work for three reasons. One, Okada already holds the International Championship. Two, he’s already booked for a match at Double or Nothing, defending that championship against Konosuke Takeshita. Three, Darby is also already more or less booked for a match at Double or Nothing, where he’ll defend his World Championship against MJF in a Title vs. Hair Match. Okada defeating Darby on May 13 would cause a level of havoc to the Double or Nothing card that simply isn’t going to happen. Wrestling just doesn’t play out that way and AEW just doesn’t tell their stories that way. They’re going to do the matches they’ve built for their pay per view.
I would place Okada’s odds of beating Darby Allin for the AEW World Championship on the May 13 Dynamite at, I dunno, 1000:1? But I believe Okada still has a Path to Wembley! Follow me on this one.
- Don’t Lose on May 13.
Or at least, don’t lose definitively. The best thing here would be a draw. Time limit, double pin, double knockout, whatever. Maybe Darby catches Okada in a pinfall, but the ref misses that his shoulder is up or that his foot is on the rope. It is absolutely imperative that whatever the finish is on May 13, Okada still has the credibility to challenge again later and by far the best way to get that is some kind of inconclusive finish. If absolutely necessary, maybe Okada can absorb getting caught by the Last Supper and still be able to challenge again later, but if he gets beaten by the Scorpion Death Lock or the Coffin Drop, it’s over, there’s no way he’s coming back for another challenge.
- Lose the International Championship.
Okada must lose to Konosuke Takeshita at Double or Nothing. It’s fine, Kazu, it’s all part of the Path. You have to believe in the Path and take that Raging Fire in the center of the ring, brother! Losing the International Championship will at least temporarily end Okada’s long-running story with Konosuke Takeshita and it will leave Okada in a position he hasn’t been in since his very first days in AEW, not holding a title of any kind. This will send Okada spiraling and make him desperate to reclaim his place at the top of the food chain as quickly as possible.
- Darby must defeat MJF.
Okada vs. MJF will happen in an AEW ring. It will be an amazing match when it does. It’s not happening before All In 2026. This is the hardest part of the entire path, but it’s not impossible. After Okada loses the International Championship, Darby has to clutch up and shave MJF’s head bald-ass bald to retain his World Championship. Then, finally…
- KILL DARBY.
If step 1 was completed successfully, then Darby will have failed to cleanly put the Rainmaker in his rearview on May 13. Darby’s pride as a fighting champion will be unable to accept this and even though he no doubt should rest and recover after what will surely be a grueling match with MJF, he will accept Okada’s challenge and that’s when Okada must strike. Don’t wait for Forbidden Door. Do it three days later on Dynamite. Give Darby a Rainmaker that knocks his soul out of his body and claim the World Championship, cementing the Path to Wembley. Who’s gonna stop him at that point? Hologram? Gimme a break.
Now, I know what you’re probably saying right now. Jeff, Okada isn’t a credible World Champion right now! He’s just a midcarder, he’s phoning it in, he’s not trying anymore, he’s just here to say “Bitch!” and cash the checks! There’s a dozen people on the roster more fitting for the main event of All In than Okada!
And I hear you. I hear your concerns and I have carefully crafted a rational data-driven response that I think will address all of your problems in a coherent, ethical, compassionate way.
Okada’s odds are 11:2.
And for the record, I would have him win at Wembley too. Knock Ospreay’s head off with a Rainmaker and send him cryin’ back home to Essex. Better luck next year, Billy!
(5/10/26 Update: Well, great job, Don Callis. You’ve screwed up the Path to Wembley! Why do I even tolerate your buffoonery!)
So, at Fairway to Hell, Don Callis made an appearance in between his weekly rounds of golf with Tony Khan, Ricochet and Roger Goodell out and made an announcement that Okada had to travel to Japan on short notice, so the match between him and Darby is off and Okada will be replaced. We will talk about the replacement in a second, but first, we have to go over what this means for Okada. A report by Dave Meltzer shortly after confirmed that everything that was said on television is essentially true and Okada was going to wrestle Darby and the match is off because Okada legitimately did have to return to Japan to handle family business. So any chance of this being an angle to put Okada in the title picture, then delay the match until after Double or Nothing or anything like that seems unlikely. Whatever happened, I hope everything with Okada’s family is okay and he returns as soon as possible. For whatever it’s worth, the tenor of the segment seemed to imply Okada vs. Takeshita for Double or Nothing is still on.
For our purposes, Okada’s Path to Wembley doesn’t actually change much in light of this news. There are two more TV tapings before Double or Nothing, a Collision taping on May 16 and a Dynamite/Collision taping on May 20. If Okada can return and the match were still to happen before Double or Nothing, one would assume it would be on the May 20 Dynamite and if the match does happen there, Okada’s path stays exactly the same. Don’t lose on May 20, lose to Takeshita at Double or Nothing, Darby must beat Max, then Okada can kill Darby at his leisure.
If Okada returns and doesn’t challenge Darby on May 20, though, things get a little more interesting but it really just means that we skip step 1. I don’t think the absence of an Okada vs. Darby match does anything to indicate the direction Okada vs. Takeshita or Darby vs. MJF may go. Step 1 is more about being useful in telling us if we’re wasting our time or not. If Okada just eats a Coffin Drop on TV, then he’s obviously not winning the World Championship later. If there’s no Okada vs. Darby match before Double or Nothing at all, then we still have to wait until after Double or Nothing to know if Okada has any chance.
So, everything with Okada just became a good deal murkier but is also basically unchanged. The important thing for Okada is that at Double or Nothing, Okada loses and Darby wins. But as mentioned, Okada’s replacement for the upcoming match with Darby has been chosen. Before he even gets to Double or Nothing, Darby is going to hear a…
MESSAGE
FROM
THE
ALPHA
“The Alpha” Konosuke Takeshita
Fellow Don Callis Family member and Okada’s opponent at Double or Nothing is the one stepping in to face Darby on May 13 which does technically make him a contender to be the AEW World Champion and face Ospreay at All In, thus, he must be analyzed for this project to be considered complete.
I mean, none of that is gonna happen, but we can still talk about it!
Takeshita does have history with Ospreay and that history is mostly just all of us watching them do stuff and going “Wow!” The Aerial Assassin and the Alpha have faced each other at Revolution 2024 (#4 on the 2024 Voices of Wrestling Match of the Year poll) and Dynamite Spring BreakThru 2025 (#13 on the 2025 Voices of Wrestling Match of the Year poll). Kinda funny how whenever Spring BreakThru is mentioned it just so happens to be talking about one of the best things to happen in AEW history, right? Every time these two get in the ring together, it’s absolute magic that plays to all of their strengths. Pure adrenaline, all gas. If you simply started from the premise of “The main event of All In 2026 should be the best possible wrestling match that AEW can make.” then the correct answer to that very well could be Will Ospreay vs. Konosuke Takeshita 3.
But, Takeshita’s arc hasn’t taken him anywhere near Will Ospreay or the World Championship in a while. The truth is, he’s gonna do his thing with Okada for however much longer that’s gonna go, the Don Callis Family is gonna turn on one of them (and don’t be so sure it’s Takeshita, by the way) and Takeshita is probably gonna wind up walking out of all of this as a 2-time International Champion, whether that’s at Double or Nothing or some other time. That sounds….very fun to me! But it means his time with the World Championship is probably not to come for a while.
We’ll put Takeshita’s odds at winning the World Championship on May 13 at 100:1 and just leave a little suggestion that maybe he can challenge Ospreay sometime in the Fall. Full Gear main event, maybe?
Tier 1: The True Contenders
We come to our final two and if you’ve been paying attention, you probably know who they are because, well, it’s the same two it’s been for the last few months. While I do think Swerve’s heel turn, Darby’s World Championship win, Okada’s challenge and one other thing we’re about to discuss have introduced a delightful air of unpredictability to the eventual main event of All In, at the end of the day, it’s probably still gonna be one of these two. They’re the ones that make the most sense and have been foreshadowed the most. Let’s discuss both of them together and at the end, I’ll tell you which one I think is most likely.
2 and 1. Maxwell Jacob Friedman & “Best Bout Machine” Kenny Omega
It should come as no surprise that these two men are the top contenders to stand across the ring from Will Ospreay at Wembley Stadium. Omega’s entire arc in 2026 has been about winning the World Championship one more time to cement his legacy while he can still wrestle at a high enough level to win it. Meanwhile, MJF was the World Champion for the entirety of 2026 until about three weeks ago. They both have history with Will Ospreay, Omega having a bloody rivalry with Ospreay that stretched across the borders of AEW and New Japan. That rivalry eventually turned into an alliance of necessity against the Don Callis Family and, from there, a genuine friendship. MJF faced Ospreay over the International Championship back in 2024. MJF has history with Darby that stretches back to the beginning of AEW when they were both known as two of the Four Pillars. MJF and Omega have history with each other, clashing over the AEW World Championship multiple times now. There’s a lot of intersecting roads here!
MJF’s Path to Wembley is fairly clear. From the moment he lost the World Championship to Darby Allin at Spring BreakThru, we all kind of assumed that he was going to win it back when Double or Nothing rolled around. The case for MJF to face Ospreay is a simple one. If Ospreay is going to become the top babyface, he should do it by defeating the top heel and that’s MJF. That’s what they did when Hangman Page defeated Kenny Omega. It’s what they did…again, when Hangman Page defeated Jon Moxley. It’s so simple and so obvious that that alone has been enough for MJF to be the clubhouse leader in this little hypothetical for most of the year.
Omega’s path is a bit less clear because he doesn’t have one. As opposed to Jon Moxley, whose two Paths are both extreme longshots, Omega has the key distinction of being the only man on this list with two real, compelling Paths to Wembley. This is where we bring up something from earlier in the article and this is where we start to discuss things that are not yet fully confirmed. As I mentioned earlier, there is a rumored pay per view for July. It is believed that the name of the show will be “Redemption” and that it will take place in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. A pay per view in Canada that is literally about “Redemption”, I dunno, I can imagine a couple things that Omega could do there. If MJF does win the World Championship back from Darby at Double or Nothing, Omega could defeat him in a rematch there.
Or.
Alternatively, Omega could win the Owen Hart Cup, and he could go to Wembley Stadium to challenge the AEW World Champion, Will Ospreay.
That’s the thing about Omega vs. Ospreay that’s different from all of these other matches. It can happen either way. Either man can be Champion going in. On Spring BreakThru, right after Darby made his own emotional speech en route to winning the World Championship, Ospreay and Omega had an emotional meeting of their own where Omega expressed his doubts in himself and Ospreay assured him that he could still reach the top. Maybe Ospreay isn’t the one who needs to climb the mountain at Wembley, maybe that’s Omega. After embracing a straightforward heel vs. babyface dynamic at the last two All In shows, maybe AEW wants to switch things up a bit and instead go for a story of two babyfaces simply trying to prove they’re the best and bring the best out of each other. Ospreay told Omega that he was his hero, Wembley could be the place where Omega has to prove himself worthy of that admiration. A battle not of good vs. evil, but one of pride, respect and love.
There’s no danger of a partisan crowd, either. Wembley Stadium will be behind Will Ospreay of course, but Omega is no less than a beloved legendary figure at this point, the wrestler who has sacrificed his body again and again for AEW and for the fans. In what might be his last chance at the World Championship, with the context of their past two amazing matches behind them – #2 and #1 in the 2023 Voices of Wrestling Match of the Year poll, it doesn’t get any better than that! – there would be no choosing sides, the crowd at Wembley Stadium would simply be there to express their love for both men and enjoy the ride.
There’s something else, too. I have to be honest with you, there’s something about MJF vs. Will Ospreay at Wembley that just…hasn’t felt right, to me. It’s because they’ve done it before. At that exact show, in that exact stadium, two years ago. MJF was a champion going in and Ospreay defeated him to win the International Championship. What exactly would they do differently this time? Ospreay isn’t spending half of every match kvetching about the Tiger Driver anymore, but we’ve found him in a position shockingly similar to the one he was in in 2024, where he needs to find the missing piece that’s keeping him from the top. He lost to Swerve in 2024 because he lacked killer instinct, then he found it and used it to defeat MJF. He lost to Moxley in 2026 because he lacked killer instinct, then he…found it…and used it to defeat MJF? He even has a guy from the Blackpool Combat Club trying to psyche him up again! What’s MJF’s part of this equation? I’ll give you a hint, it’s in a foreign country, so it’s probably gonna involve a big-ass American flag, the same way it did two years ago. I’m not against rematches at all. I think revisiting big matches every couple of years adds great texture to a long-term rivalry, it’s an argument I’ve used for multiple matches up and down this list, but American Hero MJF vs. Trying To Find The Missing Piece Ospreay on this show has just felt off to me the entire time. The dynamics just feel too similar to their match in 2024. I think from a storytelling and a business standpoint, it risks running into diminishing returns.
But these men are professionals. I’m sure they know all of this. I’m sure they have ideas to build on their rivalry from two years ago and would be able to find ways to use it to enhance a theoretical MJF vs. Ospreay match in 2026. So even despite my misgivings and all of the strong signposting towards Omega’s quest for redemption, I was still leaning towards MJF being the most likely World Champion going into Wembley and MJF vs. Will Ospreay being the match. I figured MJF would beat Darby at Double or Nothing and maybe Omega and Ospreay would meet in the Owen Hart Cup, where Ospreay would defeat Omega and Omega’s quest would wind up delayed just a bit before he got his day somewhere down the line, like Bryan Danielson eventually did. The well-substantiated reports of a pay per view in Montreal piqued my interest and Okada’s challenge got my attention, but I still thought it was MJF.
Until Darby told MJF to put up his hair.
Taking for granted that Darby’s stipulation will be accepted and he will get through any defenses between now and Double or Nothing, the main event of that show will be Darby Allin vs. MJF for the AEW World Championship, Hair vs. Title.
…..and I kinda think MJF is getting shaved!
I just think it’d be really weird to put MJF’s hair up in a match and not shave it! Now, they don’t necessarily have to shave it at Double or Nothing, this could just be the first of many times a babyface tries to hit MJF where it hurts by forcing him to put up his hair, then MJF survives by the skin of his teeth but after several years of this, he finally gets caught and gets shaved. We just saw the culmination of a five year story exactly like that with MJF, Darby and the Side Headlock Takeover. It’s the exact kind of story MJF loves to tell.
Maybe that’s the point. In five years MJF will get his head shaved, but in the meantime, once a year he can pull out this stip and all of a sudden, a match everybody was pretty sure he was winning is muddied by the very tantalizing idea of watching MJF’s very expensive head become very, very bald.
If that is the point, bravo Max, you got me! Because combined with everything else we’ve gone over today from all of these contenders (and by all of them, I mean mostly just Omega and mostly just that one promo between him and Ospreay), it’s injected just enough uncertainty to make me think that you are not main eventing Wembley Stadium in three months. So when you do, I’ll snap my fingers and say something like, “Oh, that wily Maxwell! He got me good, he did!”
I’m not sure how to parse out the odds at this point. Let’s say MJF is 2:1 and Omega is 1:1. Right now, late on a Friday night, desperately trying to finish this column and get it uploaded before Fairway to Hell so that the PAC section isn’t immediately outdated (5/10/26 Update: Well, we tried. Sorry, PAC), I think the main event of All In 2026 is going to be Kenny Omega vs. Will Ospreay for the AEW World Championship. Gun to my head…I’ll say Ospreay goes in as champion and Omega as challenger. Just because I think that’s the more interesting character dynamic.
Whoever walks out of Wembley as World Champion, I wanna see all of the guys on this list fighting each other for the rest of the year. There’s so many great matches, both first time and rematches and so much great character development that can be seized on in AEW right now. It’s probably the most compelling AEW’s World Championship scene has ever been and it was already pretty good before Spring BreakThru. But once Darby beat MJF, it just turbocharged everything, and it’s been an utter joy to watch. If all of it turns out to be window dressing and we just arrive at MJF vs. Will Ospreay after all, I certainly won’t feel short-changed.
But you can bet your ass I’m gonna be rooting for that double pin in Okada vs. Darby on the 13th. (5/10/26 Update: By which I of course mean May 20. Maybe. We’ll see.)
