Here We Go, Yo 2025 II: The G1 Climax 35 B Block Final Night Scenarios

As we head toward the NJPW G1 Climax 35 A Block’s final night,, six of the ten wrestlers in the block are still alive:

Zack Sabre Jr (12)
Ren Narita (10)
Shota Umino (10)
Konosuke Takeshita (10)
Drilla Moloney (8)
Great-O-Khan (8)

B Block Final Night Match Slate (in order)

Shingo Takagi (8) vs. Drilla Moloney (6)
Zack Sabre Jr. (12) vs. YOSHI-HASHI (8)
Shota Umino (10) vs. Great-O-Khan (8)
Ren Narita (10) vs. Konosuke Takeshita (10)

What We Learned from A Block

Once again, I was pathetically inaccurate in my predictions in the A Block Final Night Preview, although I did successfully lampshade everything in my usual philosophical cowardice. I made sure to note the likelihood of a Tsuji-EVIL-Finlay tandem, and yet for the second year in a row, I could not resist the temptation of picking a scenario where someone loses but advances.

Last year, I predicted that EVIL would lose in the 2024 A Block, but still advance, because, after that HOT-centric spring of 2024, where literally every title defense by Moxley on Japanese torture involved the House, I could not fathom them resisting the intoxicating allure of G1 Climax Playoffs HOT HEAT. I suppose I was one year off.

This year, I was the one who could not suppress my attraction, in this case to the allure of the Chosen One, Yuya Uemura. Unfortunately, it’s not worth much being the Chosen One in a generation that the leaders can’t bring themselves to choose. He is the Chosen of the Unchosen Generation. As I was told in the writing of this piece, I am putting in more effort than the people running this promotion. And honestly, so are you.

So, from A Block, we can confirm something about how this team books multi-advance. Because, remember, if we are going with the idea that Gedo is still actually working, or any of these fuckers are doing any work, the continuity runs back to the fall of 2008, when Gedo/Jado were reported to have been given the reigns, after Liger supposedly ousted Choshu. The next year was a multi-advance, giving us the infamous coin flip, and then twelve straight years of single-advance. We’ll talk later about how they appear to have carried over the high-stakes block final match booking, but the A Block final did confirm three things:

The trailing wrestler is almost always going to win the block final match to advance
They cannot resist the comeback story. Or, rather, winning streaks by wrestlers in the brink. Finlay started 1-4 and finished with four wins to advance. Here are the relevant ones of this booking regime:
- Makabe 2009A – started 0-2-1, finished 3-0
- Sugiura 2009B – started 0-2-1, finished 3-0
- Naito 2011A – started 0-3, finished 6-0
- Okada 2014B – started 3-3, finished 5-0
- Tanahashi 2015A – started 2-2, finished 5-0
- Nakamura 2015B – started 1-2, finished 6-0
- Goto 2016A – started 2-3, finished 4-0
- Naito 2017 A – started 3-2, finished 4-0
- Ibushi 2019A – started 0-2, finished 7-0
- White 2019B – started 0-3, finished 6-0
- SANADA 2020B – started 0-3, finished 6-0
- Ibushi 2021A – started 1-2, finished 6-0
- Tama 2022B – started 1-1, finished 4-0 (smaller field)
- Naito 2022C – started 0-2, finished 4-0 (smaller field)
- Hikuleo 2023A – started 0-3, finished 4-0 (smaller field)
- Great-O-Khan 2024A – started 0-4, finished 5-0
They do not put wrestlers through in a loss, no matter how fucking stupid the final result ends up being

Actually, let’s add a fourth one to that, based on that last revelation:

They are not listening to their crowds, or watching their wrestling

Bringing the Heat (which I believe stands for: Holy fuck, Everyone abandon this fucking company)

They somehow do not hear the chanting and responses to Tsuji, Uemura, Finlay, Taichi, or even Shota. Somehow, they have some form of specialized tinnitus, in which they can only hear the frequency produced when their crowds produce the 3-4 seconds of perfunctory, on-cue booing when the HOT enact their ironically hackneyed diablerie. As we’ve seen, that is the only thing that they reward. This is how they want to present themselves to their domestic and foreign audiences.

It’s one thing to vitiate your cards with the HOT nonsense (and I think it’s been inoffensive some nights, in some cases fairly good for its genre, at least with EVIL), because they have not been booked strongly all tour. The highest ranked HOT guy in booking strength is Narita, who is 9^th overall, not counting the final night. That Takeshita match is the only HOT main event all tour. Five semi-mains spread out between the three of them (actually, two… SND’s Stella-esque anti-humor was kept to the undercard all tournament). But now the faction leader won a block, and is moving on to the semi-finals.

The Lesson They Are Teaching is Clear: It Doesn’t Matter

EVIL winning a block and moving on to the playoffs confirms two clear points that this company is stridently presenting to us, and it is on us to finally receive them:

The blocks are worthless
The playoffs do not matter

Now, once again, the solution to this is to return to single-advance, and put some actual craft and care to not fuck up the booking like they did with the BOSJ this year, but there is no escaping the message they are sending with EVIL’s advance: we don’t give a fuck, we just show up (if they even do that); we encourage you to also just show up, and also don’t give a fuck, either. How can anyone be compelled by this?

The best part is the booking I mentioned above. EVIL, not accounting for the final night, was 12^th in booking strength. He peaked with two semi-main events. That’s not the booking of a block winner. A very ungenerous reading of this situation: they purposefully booked EVIL lower than usual to mask his advancement. It’s probably not the case, but that sort of drastic, pitiful, misguided overthinking is a trademark of a wrestling company in creative crisis and/or malaise. It certainly would orient with all the other self-immolations they’ve done in the past few years, with brutally illogical title changes and completely unnecessary adjustments to working traditions.

One thing that popped up numerous times in the lead-up to this G1 Climax, and throughout it, was mentions of Yuya Uemura’s injury last year. The media, the commentators, and Yuya himself, often referred to the injury as coming halfway through the tournament. It didn’t. It happened in his 8^th match. He only missed one match, on the final night. But referring to it as “halfway” is revealing, because that is the impression that one gets with a playoffs

The blocks are almost a separate entity
Even though they take more literal time to complete, that time is meaningless
The time spent in the playoffs is more valuable
But also the only thing that matters is the final, so they can fuck around with the playoffs, too

And so, here we are: EVIL not only advances to the playoffs, but he joins the short list of legendary names that have won a block. And Karl Anderson. And Nakanishi. So, yeah… I guess it could be worse.

The Two Scenario Categories

Praise the B Block. This is orders of magnitude better than the A Block’s nebulous drivel. Whereas there were 32 non-draw scenarios in A Block, and over 60 with draws, this block has a svelte 12 non-draw scenarios, and 20 with draws taken into account.

The reason is pretty simple: there are three point levels instead of two: 12, 10, and 8. Unlike A Block, which had two levels (10 and 8), and a configuration that made it possible for pretty much everyone to become ensnared in a labyrinthine tie. Not so in B Block. In B Block, there are less spots to fight over, and certain levels wrestlers can’t reach. Here’s how we broke it down:

The Leaders Club Scenarios: All the wrestlers at 10 or 12 win or draw
The Shota Loses-Like-a-Loser Scenarios: Umino loses to GOK and remains at 10

The Leaders Club Scenarios

Sabre at 14

Sabre 14/Narita 12/Umino 12
Sabre 14/Umino 12/Takeshita 12
Sabre 14/Umino 12/Narita 11/Takeshita 11 UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 3^rd. BAD. IGNORE
Sabre 14/Narita 11/Takeshita 11 UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 2^nd. BAD. IGNORE

Sabre at 13

Sabre 13/Narita/12/Umino 12
Sabre 13/Umino 12/Takeshita 12
Sabre 13/Umino 12/Narita 11/Takeshita 11 UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 3^rd. BAD. IGNORE
Sabre 13/Narita 11/Takeshita 11 UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 2^nd. BAD. IGNORE

Sabre at 12

Narita 12 Sabre 12//Umino 12
Umino 12/Sabre 12/ Takeshita 12
Sabre 12/Umino 11/Narita 11/Takeshita 11 UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 2^nd. BAD. IGNORE
Sabre 12/ Narita 11/Takeshita 11 UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 2^nd. BAD. IGNORE

The Shota-Loses-Like-a-Loser Scenarios

Sabre at 14, Narita at 12: 2 scenarios for 3^rd place at 10

Shingo, Umino, GOK, Takeshita
Drilla, Umino, GOK, Takeshita

Sabre at 14, Takeshita at 12: 2 scenarios for 3^rd place at 10

Shingo, Umino, GOK, Narita UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 3^rd. BAD. IGNORE
Drilla, Umino, GOK, Narita

Narita at 12, Sabre at 12: 2 scenarios for 3^rd place at 10

Shingo, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Takeshita
Drilla, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Takeshita

Sabre at 12, Takeshita at 12: 2 scenarios for 3^rd place at 10

Shingo, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Narita
Drilla, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Narita

What to Look for

Shingo is Done. Stop Saying Otherwise.

The one-inch thought blackshirt motherfuckers who edit wrestling Wikipedia articles, historically the most miserable people in the history of Earth, having recently overtaken late-00’s hyperinflation Zimbabwe and Holodomor-era Ukraine, will not allow you to consider Shingo Takagi eliminated from G1 Climax 35. Which, technically, is true… there is one scenario in which he is still alive:

Shingo defeats Moloney and moves to 10 points
ZSJ wins and moves to 14 points
GOK defeats Shota Umino, both at 10 points
Takeshita stuffs Narita into the showers with Narita fully clothed

In this scenario, we end up with this result:

ZSJ wins the block, 1st place with 14 points
Takeshita is in 2nd place with 12 points
Shingo, GOK, Umino, and Narita are tied for 3rd at 10 points
Shingo, GOK, and Narita are in an unbreakable tie, all 2-1 within the four-person group, and all 1-1 within their three-person sub-group
Shota Umino is wedged into a septic tank, 0-3 within the group, literally a gigantic loser.

Do not entertain this scenario. It doesn’t fucking matter if it is feasible; it is not possible. It was bad enough that they did a three-way unbreakable tie during World Tag League. But in the G1 Climax? If they do this, shut it down. Shut down World. Shut down the company. Shut down the parent company. Shut down the unitary constitutional monarchy of Japan. Suit down the entire concept of transnational cultural domestication. FUCK IT.

It is a thoroughly inexcusable and unforgivable premise. How would you even break it? With a three-way match? You mean the ubiquitous match of the western world that New Japan has run exactly… 19 times? And never in any point of consequence. And they’d have to run it the same night as the QF, so imagine having to pull double duty because these dumb incompetent brine-brained fucks can’t get their act together.

So no, Shingo Takagi is not realistically alive in any sense. He’s fucking done.

Also…

There is Absolutely No Reason for Shingo Takagi to Defeat Drilla Moloney

Since Shingo is done, there’s no justification for him to defeat Drilla. At the very least, Drilla has two potential paths to advancement:

Moloney defeats Shingo and moves to 10 points
ZSJ wins and moves to 14 points OR ZSJ loses to YSH-HSH and remains at 12 points
GOK defeats Shota Umino, both at 10 points
Takeshita pulls Narita’s boxers so high through his pants that Narita’s prostate spaghettifies

In this scenario, we end up with this result:

ZSJ wins the block, 1st place with 14 points or 12 points
Takeshita is in 2nd place with 12 points
Moloney, GOK, Umino, and Narita are tied for 3rd at 10 points
Moloney in 3rd place with a 3-0 record within the group
Ren Narita in 4th place with a 2-1 record within the group
GOK in 5th place with a 1-2 record within the group
Shota Umino: 0-3. What a loser.

And at 12 points:

ZSJ wins the block, 1st place with 12 points
Takeshita is in 2nd place with 12 points
Moloney, GOK, Umino, and Narita are tied for 3rd at 10 points
Moloney in 3rd place with a 3-0 record within the group
YSH-HSH, GOK, and Narita are in an unbreakable tie, all 2-2 within the four-person group, and all 1-1 within their three-person sub-group
Shota Umino: LOSER

A G1 Climax night should progress in whatever ways leave the most on the table at moving forward. In single-advance, that means that anyone alive in the undercard loses, so they don’t eliminate anyone in the main event. In multi-advance, you just leave things open, and let them fall along the path to the main. In this case, why close off paths for a young, novel entrant just to give a face-saving win for a guy entering his mid-40s? We need to re-establish the idea that guys can simply have off-years. I mean, Shota kind of established that last year, but some things in like have such little impact that we can comfortably pretend they don’t exist without any conflict. Like Tin Machine, or Samurai 8. And so, that didn’t fucking happen.

I get the sense that Drilla’s ceiling is pretty low in public perception, but I like what I’ve seen of him in this tournament. You know you’re getting a goddamn great backstage comment from him, slightly incomprehensible with his gruff Anglican snarl, but captivating throughout. If he’s within several square miles of another Brit, he is going to drop the c-word at least 3-4 dozen times a minute. Check out his backstage comment after the Sabre match, which vacillated between truculence and poignancy. Moloney suggested that Zack did not respect him, and Sabre stormed in with bewilderment before Drilla could even finish the sentence. They then danced around their emotions for a minute before Sabre scampered off. It was a great treat for those that watch these things.

In-ring, Drilla’s hasn’t been consistent; for me, he’s inhabited the 3.25-3.75 range, never exceptional, never abysmal. And that’s generally been the tag on him his career. But he’s also been in this division for less than half a year. Before that, he was stuck in tag perdition for two years. In this tournament, I saw the potential for him to prosper in the current New Japan environment, in the match with Takeshita, in the match with Umino, in the match with Sabre particularly.

It’d be nice if he was a bit more ambitious, but he showed a capability that direction in the Umino match, where they just went all fucking out, audacious instead of fretting over psychology in the 2^nd match on a 10-match show. I’ve enjoyed the sequences, pace, and verve in most of his matches. His finisher is seriously over, and legitimately impressive. He’s a guy that could grow into the role as it emerges, or not. But I think it’s worth exploring.

Shingo, on the other hand, has had a typically commendable tournament, with an astoundingly incredible match against Takeshita. The problem with Shingo is that he was trapped within his formula for the latter half of 2024 and first part of 2025. Up until the Drilla match broke him out of it, actually. The Takeshita match at Wrestle Kingdom was farcical, with the no-sell sequences mere minutes into the match, and far too many of the fucking things. Takeshita went out and had an overwhelmingly superior match of the same ilk with Ishii the next night, which was an indictment of Shingo as much as it was a testament to Ishii or Takeshita.

This match will probably have little consequence, anyway. Everyone above them in the standings can simply win to advance, and hopefully that is the choice New Japan takes. And so, Drilla beating Shingo will mean little in the moment, but it certainly could be something to draw upon in the future. The guy’s 28. Seemingly safe to push for a while. An electric speaker. This could be Shingo Ennui speaking.

YOSHI-HASHI Doesn’t Really Matter… But He’s a Lifeline for the Overlooked

It doesn’t really matter if YSH-HSH defeats ZSJ, except for potentially setting up one of the most glaringly predictable title defenses in New Japan history. But, YSH-HSH is the vital element in one particular result: the one where Great-O-Khan advances.

GOK is inherently part of every relevant 10-point scenario. Without GOK defeating Umino, we are guaranteed one of the Leaders’ Club Scenarios listed above. But if GOK does defeat the inflated lariat bastard, there are 8 possible scenarios (bold = advancement):

The No-YSH-HSHs Club:
- Shingo, Umino, GOK, Takeshita
- Drilla, Umino, GOK, Takeshita
- Shingo, Umino, GOK, Narita UNBREAKABLE TIE FOR 3^rd. BAD. IGNORE
- Drilla, Umino, GOK, Narita
The YSH-HSH-Inclusive Consortiums
- Shingo, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Takeshita
- Drilla, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Takeshita
- Shingo, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Narita
- Drilla, YSH-HSH, Umino, GOK, Narita

As you can see, GOK only advances in one of those scenarios, and it requires YSH-HSH to pull off the ultimate, improbably, irrational, almost impeachable-to-those-responsible upset. If YSH-HSH loses, you can almost guarantee Shota Umino will advance; there would be absolutely zero reason for him to lose at that point, with nothing to gain for GOK.

Either Umino Succeeds or Takeshita Does

And if Shota Umino wins, you should, should, be confident that Konosuke Takeshita will advance as well. This one is a bit counter-intuitive, since Takeshita automatically advances if Umino loses to GOK. Actually, we admit this is a stretch, because ultimately the Narita-Takeshita match comes down to the winner advancing, regardless of any results before it. But if Umino wins, that takes away Takeshita’s safety net, and that should, should, portend a Takeshita victory.

Surely, they wouldn’t end the night with…

I mean, surely the heat is not worth…

I mean, obviously, they realize that Narita’s meager heat isn’t worth…

The Winner-Take-All Final is Back…ish

David Finlay v. Yuya Uemura was a winner-take-all block final match, thanks to wins by SANADA, EVIL, and Yota Tsuji. We are guaranteed a match with stakes in the B Block final night main event: the winner of the Narita-Takeshita contest is guaranteed to advance. This is how it should be.

It’s a little odd to say that the winner-take-all block final match is back, for a couple reasons:

It only grew tenuous one year: 2023
It’s not really “winner-take-all” in a multi-advance system, but it’s not exactly “win-or-go-home,” either, because in multi-advance wrestlers can theoretically advance with a loss if the conditions are propitious, as we discussed in our A Block Final Night Preview. Although it’s only happened four times, 30 out of 114 wrestlers with win/advance possibilities in the multi-advance years (1995, 2001-2007, 2009, 2023-2025) had advance-with-loss scenarios. 11 of those wrestlers were in the block final match, out of a possible 50. We’re including the 2025 A Block in those numbers, but not the B Block, although Takeshita comes in as the only wrestler in B Block that could advance-with-loss.
Either way, our brain is stuck on the flow of “winter-take-all”

In 2023, the return of the multi-advance, half the block final matches were not “winner-take-all,” but contests between wrestlers with a chance to either win/advance and a wrestler that was eliminated by an earlier result from doing either. It’s not a compelling system. Thankfully, it’s not even in line with the history of multi-advance.

In the history of the G1 Climax, there have been 25 multi-advance blocks, obviously comprising 50 wrestlers in the block final match. 68% of the time, the match has both competitors fighting to advance:

25 Blocks
- 17 Winner-Take-All
  - 8: Both could only advance
    - 2002B, 2006B, 2007B, 2009B, 2023A, 2023B, 2024A, 2024B
  - 2: Both could win block
    - 2003B, 2005B
  - 7: Mix (one could win, one could only advance)
    - 1995A, 1995B, 2002A, 2004B, 2007A, 2009A, 2025A
  - 8 Not Winner Take All
    - 7: One person eliminated
      - 2001A, 2001B, 2003A, 2004A, 2006A, 2023C, 2023D
    - 1: Both wrestlers eliminated: 2005A
  - 50 Wrestlers
    - 25: Realistic Advance Scenario when match began
      - 1995A, 1995B, 2001B, 2002A, 2002B, 2002B, 2004B, 2006B, 2006B, 2007A, 2007B, 2007B, 2009A, 2009B, 2009B, 2023A, 2023A, 2023B, 2023B, 2023C, 2024A, 2024A, 2024B, 2024B, 2025A
    - 16: Realistic Win Scenario when match began
      - 1995A, 1995B, 2001A, 2002A, 2003A, 2003B, 2003B, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005B, 2006A, 2007A, 2009A, 2023D, 2025A
    - 6: Eliminated from win or advance by earlier result
      - 2001A, 2003A, 2004A, 2005A, 2023C, 2023D
    - 3: Mathematically eliminated before final night
      - 2001B, 2005A, 2006A

Let’s compare that to single-advance, just from 2010-2022, the years in which the current booking coterie of bureaucratic bully dickheads and junior heavyweight tag team specialists established the modern traditions. Those twelve years give is 24 blocks and 48 wrestlers:

24 Blocks
- 24: True winner-take-all
  - That is, the only two people that could win the block when the match began were the two in the block final match.
  - 2010A, 2010B, 2011A, 2011B, 2012A, 2012B, 2013A, 2013B, 2015A, 2015B, 2016A, 2016B, 2017A, 2017B, 2018A, 2018B, 2019A, 2019B, 2020B, 2021A, 2021B, 2022A, 2022B, 2022C
- 4: Mixed
  - One wrestler with a chance to win the block, the other mathematically eliminated
  - 2014A, 2024B, 2020A, 2002D
    - In three of those matches, the mathematically eliminated wrestler won
      - Davey Boy Smith, Jr defeated Hiroshi Tanahashi in 2014A
      - Tomohiro Ishii defeated Jay White in 2020A
      - ELP defeated his father Shingo Takagi in 2022D

You know, just in case I still needed evidence of which system is superior. But thankfully, we are guaranteed a match with high consequence with Narita-Takeshita, and most likely, it will be a true win-or-go-home match. For Narita, he must win to advance. Ren Narita does not win any tiebreakers at 10 points; he must win or draw.

Takeshita is the opposite, somewhat; he wins every single tiebreaker at 10 points, but only if Shota Umino is involved. Ironically, by including someone that he has lost to, Takeshita wins easily, because every other person that could be at 10 points he has defeated: YSH-HSH, Drilla Moloney, Shingo Takagi, and Great-O-Khan.

Expert Predictions (50% Accuracy Every Year!)

Simply put:

ZSJ should win and get to the rare strata of 14-point G1 Climax runs for the second straight year. The only person to ever score 14 points in consecutive years was Ibushi (2019-2021).
Shota Umino, by simply reverting back to a less demonstrative version of himself, pre New Japan Cup 2024, has regained the fans. We wasted a year with that dithering drivel. Anyway, it would be stunning if he failed to gain his revenge on his winter 2025 tormentor.
You could charge them with conspiracy and espionage if they have both blocks push HOT members through at the expense of the best wrestler in the tournament, and Uemura and Takeshita share that title.
On the positive side, Narita has stronger wins than Takeshita, scoring falls on both Sabre and Umino. I’d like to think that this works against him. Because Takeshita lost to both of those guys, it sets him up to face Umino in the autumn after Takeshita wins the tournament, like he should. Then onward to challenging Zack at WK, because the last thing we need right now is for them to sacrifice the fucking Wrestle Kingdom main event again for the sake of making the fall slightly more interesting. It’s not worth it. That was

B Block Final Night Match Slate (in order)