Stunted Development: WWE’s Unsustainable NIL Recruitment Strategy

Overshadowed by “Stone Cold” Steve Austin’s return to the ring and Brock Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns was NXT Stand & Deliver, the NXT brand’s return to WrestleMania weekend. Approximately 4,400 fans (per WrestleTix) attended the matinee event at the American Airlines Arena. This was much smaller than NXT’s last WrestleMania weekend event; a sold-out show with over 15k fans in attendance at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Stand & Deliver received solid reviews but no match approached New York’s main event between Johnny Gargano and Adam Cole, which placed 5th in Voices of Wrestling’s 2019 Match of the Year poll.

This follows the late 2021 rollout of NXT 2.0, which now features young wrestlers starting their careers after completing initial training as opposed to experienced veterans aiming to blow away their main roster colleagues performing on the same weekend. Since the debut of NXT 2.0 on September 14, 2021, the show’s ratings have declined 8% in total viewership and 20% in the 18-49 demo compared to the same 31-week period from the prior year. This decline is made worse when considering the context that last year’s higher ratings came when NXT was competing with AEW Dynamite on Wednesday nights; it now airs unopposed on Tuesday.

Why did WWE make this strategic change? 

The answer lies in the composition of WWE’s main roster. The average and median ages of WWE’s Raw and SmackDown talent are 36 for men and 33 for women. The list of male wrestlers over 40 is in the double digits and includes AJ Styles, Bobby Lashley, Brock Lesnar, Dolph Ziggler, Edge, Finn Balor, Kofi Kingston, Miz, Randy Orton, Rey Mysterio, Sheamus, and Shinsuke Nakamura. Most of these stars will need to be phased down or replaced within the next five years, so finding younger talent capable of doing so is a top priority.

In an interview with The Ringer’s Ariel Helwani, WWE President Nick Khan spoke on the shift in WWE’s recruitment strategy by saying: “We believe because of a lot of the ‘indie wrestlers’ if you will, have come through our system, and are in our system with SmackDown and RAW now. We don’t want to keep doing that same thing, we want to look elsewhere for great young talent.”

He elaborated during WWE’s 2021 Q3 earnings call by stating WWE’s recruitment efforts were “focused on young athletes who may not, at this moment in time, be in the ‘wrestling space.’ And we think all of those results will come to fruition in the right way, and that NXT will continue the way it’s already building.” These words have been backed up by actions, as WWE has gotten heavily involved with NIL sponsorships for NCAA athletes which garnered coverage from ESPN and other mainstream outlets. WWE recently expanded on this “Next In Line” program by announcing a partnership with student-athlete brand management platform INFLCR to “to recruit and develop college talent into potential WWE stars.”

On the surface this strategy makes sense.

Main eventers like Kurt Angle, Brock Lesnar, Mark Henry, and Bobby Lashley all joined WWE with no pro wrestling experience after being successful in other sports. The Rock and Randy Orton were third-generation wrestlers with little experience prior to signing with WWE for additional training and development.

While those examples are valid, they’re not necessarily reflective of the developmental system’s overall level of success. More talent is needed to fill a two-night WrestleMania extravaganza than a handful of stars. They’re also not indicative of the system’s potential future success, as the current developmental process is vastly different now than it was in the 90s or early 2000s. A closer look at the makeup of WWE’s roster during the 2010s and early 2020s suggests a fundamental flaw in their new recruitment strategy:

The NXT developmental system has proven incapable of training recruits at a level that meets the main roster’s demand for talent.

The Current and Future Success Rate of WWE’s Developmental System

The current and future success rate of WWE’s developmental system, or lack thereof, can be measured by utilizing four simple criteria to determine the origin of their most featured stars.

Criterion #1
Wrestlers That Debuted on WWE’s Main Roster Between 2010-2021

NXT is WWE’s developmental brand and debuted as a television show in February 2010. This followed WWE centralizing its developmental system to Florida Championship Wrestling in 2008. What made FCW different was that it was WWE-managed and operated unlike previous developmental territories like Ohio Valley Wrestling and Deep South Wrestling. While WWE’s Performance Center location wasn’t opened until 2013, its predecessor FCW utilized many of the same trainers and methods. FCW itself would adopt the NXT name in 2012. Based on this timeline everyone who debuted on WWE’s main roster in 2010 or later would have spent time in either FCW or NXT prior to their Raw or SmackDown debut. This period can be used to both document the WWE development system’s previous/current success rate, as well as predict how successful it will be in the future as it will continue to be utilized going forward.

Criterion #2
Wrestled at least 10 televised matches on a combination of Raw, SmackDown, or Main Roster PPV events by the end of March 2022

The purpose of this criterion is to identify the talent WWE management invested in and featured on television. WWE’s biggest revenue drivers are the rights fees garnered by Raw on USA, SmackDown on Fox, and their “Premium Live Events” (formerly known as Pay Per Views) on Peacock. The wrestlers appearing on those shows are the ones WWE relied upon to generate their continuous record-breaking revenue (now over $1 billion annually).

The ten televised match minimum is designed to filter out celebrity involvement, wrestlers used exclusively in enhancement matches, NXT-only talent making limited appearances as part of a multi-brand angle, and wrestlers called up to the main roster only to be released or sent back to NXT shortly thereafter. If a wrestler had less than ten matches on WWE’s primary shows they clearly weren’t someone management decided to invest in for better or worse. This isn’t an attempt to judge anyone’s value as a performer, but simply reflect how WWE itself judged talent and who they chose to feature.

Criterion #3
Considered “Trained In WWE” if they had less than 50 career matches (as documented on Cagematch.net) prior to joining WWE

This is intended to sort which wrestlers were “trained” within the WWE system similar to how the athletes Nick Khan was referring to will need to be. This isn’t to say that NXT hasn’t helped veteran talent improve, but there’s a significant difference between providing a platform for established wrestlers to gain additional experience and transforming an athlete that’s never set foot in a ring into a superstar. The threshold of 50 matches was set based on a variety of factors. While Cagematch.net is a great resource, it won’t capture every independent show that’s held. Some wrestlers may have had dozens of additional undocumented matches prior to joining WWE. If a wrestler has 50 documented matches over multiple years, then it’s likely they’ve actually had many more.

These are some examples and context for where wrestlers have been around their 50-match milestone:

• AEW’s Jade Cargill had 30 career matches at the end of March 2022.
• Omos had 69 career matches as of WrestleMania 38.
• Ronda Rousey won the WWE Women’s Championship within her first 50 matches. She had 79 career matches as of WrestleMania 38.
• The Rock won the Intercontinental Title within his first 50 matches.
• Per “The Complete List of Jericho”, Y2J’s 50th match took place on October 24, 1991 in Saitama Japan for a crowd of 2,200. He tagged with Lance Storm against Horace Boulder & The Gladiator (Mike Awesome). Chris himself rated this match 4 stars. At this point, he’d been active for over a year and could no longer be considered “in training”.

Criterion #4
What main roster singles championships did a wrestler hold? 

This serves to capture and categorize the level of success talent experienced on WWE’s main roster. The idea here isn’t to subjectively rate how talented each individual wrestler has been or the quality of their matches (feel free to assess that yourself and see if you notice a pattern). The purpose is to reflect who WWE prioritized as their top stars. While kayfabe title reigns aren’t indicative of artistic or business success, they are telling in identifying who WWE decided to feature the most prominently on their programming. Since WWE has rarely featured tag teams as main event acts, only singles title reigns will be considered when distinguishing levels of success a particular wrestler achieved while on the main roster.  The 24/7 and Cruiserweight Championships will also be excluded as neither has been involved in headlining level programs. Since there are more singles championships available for male wrestlers than there are for female wrestlers, slightly different criteria are needed for male and female talent. The categories fall into three levels:

Tier 1 – Headlining Champions

• Male Criteria: WWE/World Heavyweight/Universal Champions
• Female Criteria: Raw/SmackDown Women’s Champion/Divas Champion For More Than 180 Cumulative Days

Tier 2 – Secondary Champions

• Male Criteria: Intercontinental or US Champions
• Female Criteria: Raw/SmackDown Women’s Champion/Divas Champion For Less Than 180 Cumulative Days

Tier 3 – Roster Members

• Male Criteria: No Main Roster Heavyweight Singles Championships
• Female Criteria: No Main Roster Singles Championships

Before we dig into the data please remember that this is focused on the NXT era, so it excludes talent that debuted prior to 2010 on Raw, SmackDown, or ECW. Names like Randy Orton, Dolph Ziggler, Drew McIntyre, Kofi Kingston, Miz, Nikki Bella, Natalya, and Sheamus will not be included as they debuted prior to 2010 and came up through a different developmental system. It also excludes wrestlers that have yet to participate in 10 televised matches on Raw, SmackDown, or PPV as of March 31, 2022. Someone like Killer Kross will not be listed, as he was released before reaching the 10-match milestone. If you believe someone has been erroneously excluded, they most likely fit into one of those categories…or I made a mistake. No one is perfect, but Arturo Galletti (@DataStrictly on Twitter) is pretty close and helped me mine a ton of data from wrestlingdata.com to create this. Many thanks to him.

Now that the parameters have been set let’s start with the breakdown of WWE’s female talent that debuted during the NXT era of 2010-2021.

Female Wrestlers Trained In WWE: 20

Tier 1: Headlining Champions
Raw/SmackDown Women’s Champion/Divas Champion More Than 180 Cumulative Days

• Alexa Bliss
• AJ Lee
• Charlotte Flair
• Ronda Rousey

Tier 2: Secondary Champions
Raw/SmackDown Women’s Champion/Divas Champion Less Than 180 Cumulative Days

• Bianca Belair
• Carmella
• Kaitlyn
• Naomi
• Nia Jax

Tier 3: Roster Members
No Main Roster Singles Championships

• Aksana
• Cameron/Ariane
• Dana Brooke
• Eva Marie
• Lacey Evans
• Lana
• Liv Morgan
• Mandy Rose
• Sonya Deville
• Summer Rae
• Tamina

Female Wrestlers Not Trained In WWE: 19

Tier 1: Headlining Champions
Raw/SmackDown Women’s Champion/Divas Champion More Than 180 Cumulative Days

• Asuka – 883 matches over an 11-year period pre-NXT
• Bayley – 59 matches over a 4-year period pre-NXT
• Becky Lynch – 63 matches over a 9-year period pre-NXT
• Sasha Banks – 54 matches over a 2-year period pre-NXT

Tier 2: Secondary Champions
Raw or SmackDown Women’s Champion/Divas Champion Less Than 180 Cumulative Days

• Nikki Cross/A.S.H. – 312 matches over a 7-year period pre-NXT
• Rhea Ripley – 95 matches over a 4-year period pre-NXT
• Paige – 239 matches over a 5-year period pre-FCW/NXT

Tier 3: Roster Members
No Main Roster Singles Championships

• Billie Kay/Jessie McKay – 141 matches over a 7-year period pre-NXT
• Doudrop/Piper Niven – 443 matches over a 10-year period pre-NXT
• Ember Moon – 255 matches over an 8-year period pre-NXT
• Kairi Sane – 296 matches over a 5-year period pre-NXT
• Peyton Royce/Cassie Lee – 63 matches over a 6-year period pre-NXT
• Ruby Soho/Riott – 391 matches over a 6-year period pre-NXT
• Sarah Logan – 164 matches over a 5-year period pre-NXT
• Shayna Baszler – 65 matches over a 2-year period pre-WWE/NXT
• Shotzi – 417 matches over a 5-year period pre-NXT
• Tenille Dashwood/Emma – 63 matches over a 4-year period pre-NXT
• Toni Storm – 275 matches over a 6-year period pre-NXT
• Zelina Vega – 96 matches over an 8-year period pre-NXT

Since 2010 WWE has debuted 39 women on the main roster that have had 10 or more televised matches on Raw, SmackDown, or PPV. Half of them were trained in WWE. Half of them were not.

In terms of the women WWE pushed as their top champions, that number is also evenly split between both categories. One could make an argument that Ronda Rousey’s success came from being an established star in MMA which isn’t indicative of WWE’s ability to train and create new stars moving forward, but Bianca Belair appears set to be elevated into Tier 1 shortly, so the results would still be even across the board. While AJ Lee and Alexa Bliss never headlined PPV events the way their counterparts Becky Lynch and Sasha Banks have, they were prominent television characters involved in main event programs even when they weren’t champions, so WWE management was relying on them to participate in lengthy high-profile TV segments.

The distribution across the board is remarkably even.

WWE’s latest recruiting class announced in March included seven female recruits. Of those seven, only Roxanne Perez (formerly Rok-C) and Sloane Jacobs (formerly The Notorious Mimi) had more than 50 documented matches outside of WWE prior to signing. If that ratio of experienced vs inexperienced recruits continues with each class and translates to the main roster, then approximately 25% of WWE’s female talent will be externally sourced going forward. That would require the Performance Center to increase its success rate of trainees that become main roster mainstays by 50% to meet Raw & SmackDown’s historical demand for new female wrestlers.

That is a substantial increase and a daunting challenge, but pales in comparison to what will be needed for the male portion of the roster.

Male Wrestlers Trained In WWE: 40

Tier 1: Headlining Champions
WWE/World Heavyweight/Universal Champions

• Big E
• Bray Wyatt
• Braun Stroman
• Roman Reigns

Tier 2: Secondary Champions
Intercontinental or US Champions

• Baron Corbin
• Curtis Axel
• Miro/Rusev
• Ryback
• Wade Barrett

Tier 3: Roster Members
No Main Roster Heavyweight Singles Championships 

• Aiden English
• Akam (Authors of Pain)
• Alex Riley
• Angelo Dawkins
• Big Cass
• Bo Dallas
• Brodus Clay/Tyrus
• Chad Gable
• Damien Sandow
• David Otunga
• Dominik Mysterio
• Enzo Amore
• Heath Slater
• Jason Jordan
• Jey Uso
• Jimmy Uso
• Konnor (Ascension)
• MACE/Dio Madden
• Madcap Moss
• Michael Tarver
• Mojo Rawley
• Montez Ford
• Omos
• Otis
• Reggie/Reginald
• Rezar (Authors of Pain)
• Rick Boogs
• Ridge Holland
• Shanky
• Titus O’Neil
• Tucker

Male Wrestlers Not Trained In WWE: 72

Tier 1: Headlining Champions
WWE/World Heavyweight/Universal Champions

• AJ Styles – 1337 matches over a 16-year period pre-WWE
• Alberto Del Rio – 491 matches over a 9-year period pre-FCW
• Bryan Danielson – 770 matches over a 10-year period pre-NXT
• Finn Bálor – 785 matches over a 12-year period pre-NXT
• Jinder Mahal – 117 matches over a 5-year period pre-FCW
• Jon Moxley/Dean Ambrose – 520 matches over a 6-year period pre-FCW
• Kevin Owens – 757 matches over a 14-year period pre-NXT
• Seth Rollins – 406 matches over a 6-year period pre-FCW

Tier 2: Secondary Champions
Intercontinental or US Champions

• Andrade El Ídolo – 1133 matches over a 9-year period pre-NXT
• Apollo Crews – 345 matches over a 5-year period pre-NXT
• Austin Theory – 220 matches over a 3-year period pre-NXT
• Brodie Lee/Luke Harper – 373 matches over an 8-year period pre-FCW/NXT
• Cesaro – 806 matches over a 10-year period pre-FCW
• Damian Priest – 169 matches over a 13-year period pre-NXT
• Kalisto/Samuray del Sol – 190 matches over a 6-year period pre-NXT
• Matt Riddle – 336 matches over a 3-year period pre-NXT
• Ricochet – 1056 matches over a 12-year period pre-NXT
• Robert Roode – 1112 matches over a 16-year period pre-NXT
• Sami Zayn – 752 matches over an 11-year period pre-NXT
• Samoa Joe – 1054 matches over a 15-year period pre-NXT
• Shinsuke Nakamura – 1325 matches over an 11-year period pre-NXT

Tier 3: Roster Members
No Main Roster Heavyweight Singles Championships

• Adam Rose – Trained as a teenager in South Africa. Signed with WWE at age 30
• Akira Tozawa – 1675 matches over an 11-year period pre-WWE
• Angel Garza – 234 matches over a 9-year period pre-NXT
• Ariya Daivari – 330 matches over a 10-year period pre-WWE
• Austin Aries – 923 matches over a 15-year period pre-NXT
• Buddy Murphy/Matthews  – 95 matches over a 6-year period pre-NXT
• Cash Wheeler/Dash Wilder – 197 matches over a 7-year period pre-NXT
• Cedric Alexander – 469 matches over a 6-year period pre-WWE/NXT
• Darren Young/Fred Rosser – 271 matches over a 6-year period pre-FCW
• Dax Harwood/Scott Dawson – 64 matches over a 7-year period pre-NXT
• Donovan Dijak/T-BAR – 320 matches over a 4-year period pre-NXT
• Drew Gulak – 716 matches over an 11-year period pre-WWE
• El Torito – 382 matches over a 13-year period pre-WWE
• Elias – 87 matches over a 6-year period pre-NXT
• Epico Colón – 214 matches over a 4-year period pre-FCW
• Eric Young – 754 matches over a 17-year period pre-NXT
• Erick Rowan – 76 matches over a 6-year period pre-FCW
• Erik/Rowe (Viking Raiders) – 595 matches over a 15-year period pre-NXT
• Fandango – 89 matches over a 7-year period pre-DSW/FCW
• Gran Metalik – 1127 matches over an 11-year period pre-WWE/NXT
• Humberto Carillo – 139 matches over a 5-year period pre-NXT
• Hunico/2nd Sin Cara – 67 matches over a 5-year period pre-FCW
• Ivar/Hanson (Viking Raiders) – 617 matches over a 12-year period pre-NXT
• Jack Gallagher – 330 matches over a 10-year period pre-WWE/NXT
• James Ellsworth – 77 matches over a 10-year period pre-WWE
• Jaxson Ryker/Gunner – 459 matches over a 10-year period pre-NXT
• Justin Gabriel/PJ Black – Trained as a teenager in South Africa. Signed with WWE at age 26
• Karl Anderson – 1123 matches over a 15-year period pre-WWE
• Keith Lee – 326 matches over a 13-year period pre-NXT
• Lince Dorado – 546 matches over a 9-year period pre-WWE
• Low-Ki/Kaval – 668 matches over a 10-year period pre-FCW
• Malakai/Aleister Black – 574 matches over a 13-year period pre-NXT
• Mansoor – 80 matches over a 3-year period pre-NXT
• Mason Ryan – 129 matches over a 3-year period pre-FCW
• Mike Bennett – 553 matches over a 14-year period pre-WWE
• Místico/1st Sin Cara – 831 matches over an 11-year period pre-WWE
• Mustafa Ali – 252 matches over an 11-year period pre-NXT/WWE
• Noam Dar – 412 matches over an 8-year period pre-NXT/WWE
• No Way Jose – 54 matches over a 2-year period pre-NXT
• Ricardo Rodriguez – 111 matches over a 4-year period pre-FCW
• Rich Swann – 571 matches over a 7-year period pre-NXT
• PAC/Neville – 761 matches over an 8-year period pre-NXT
• Samir Singh – 177 matches over a 10-year period pre-WWE
• Shane Thorne/SLAPJACK – 530 matches over a 13-year period pre-NXT
• Simon Gotch – 188 matches over an 11-year period pre-NXT
• Sunil Singh – 265 matches over an 11-year period pre-WWE
• TJP – 691 matches over a 15-year period pre-WWE
• Tony Nese – 388 matches over an 11-year period pre-WWE
• Tyler Breeze – 70 matches over a 3-year period pre-FCW/NXT
• Viktor (Ascension) – 307 matches over a 10-year period pre-FCW
• Xavier Woods – 199 matches over a 4-year period pre-FCW

Since 2010 WWE has debuted 112 male wrestlers on the main roster that have had ten or more televised matches on Raw, SmackDown, or PPV. 64% of them were not trained by WWE. While WWE’s developmental system can claim success from developing top acts like Roman Reigns, Bray Wyatt, Braun Stroman, and Big E, 70% of their Headlining Champions and Secondary Champions (Tiers 1 & 2) were established veterans prior to joining WWE. That difference remains over a 60/40 split even when only considering roster members that never held a major singles title.

Over the past decade, WWE has been heavily reliant on externally trained male talent to both headline their shows and fill out their cards. In public, they may reference a need to eliminate “bad habits” learned on the indies, but in practice, they actually prefer talent with years of outside experience.

WWE’s latest recruiting class announced in March included seven male recruits. Only Troy Donovan (formerly known as Cole Karter) had more than 50 recorded matches prior to joining WWE. If that ratio of experienced vs inexperienced recruits continues with each class, then the Performance Center will have to MORE THAN DOUBLE its NXT era output of trainees that become main roster mainstays if they hope to meet Raw & SmackDown’s historical demand for male wrestlers. They’d also need to more than double their rate of producing headliners.

You could argue that with far fewer veterans to compete with, the male trainees will receive more opportunities to be pushed and showcased. By that same token though, the new trainees may not develop as quickly (or as well) if there are fewer experienced wrestlers around to work with on a regular basis.

As NXT no longer runs house shows for their talent to gain experience in front of a live audience, their rate of progression is likely to be slower than trainees from previous years. While Kurt Angle, Brock Lesnar, and Randy Orton joined WWE with little to no experience, they had 82, 86, and 104 matches respectively before making their main roster television debuts. With only three hours of NXT per week on USA and Peacock it will take NXT trainees multiple years to reach comparable match totals. Will WWE have the patience to let their trainees sufficiently develop before calling them up to the main roster?

Or will they debut talent with significantly lower levels of experience?

Could that lead to a decline in the average skill level for a Raw or SmackDown wrestler and diminish product quality? There’s also a concern regarding wrestler safety if trainees are pushed along too rapidly, with Big E’s severe neck injury and Randy Orton’s comments during a recent interview with Pat McAfee being reasons for concern.

What does this all mean for the future? 

While it’s conceivable that allocating the roster spots previously used on veterans to in-house trained athletes could generate an increase of internally developed headliners, that strategy will be unable to supply an entire roster capable of supporting multiple brands creating 24 hours of content per month between national TV and PPV. Another issue is that talent develops from performing in front of live audiences and working with more experienced opponents or partners. Without house shows or veterans to work with on a regular basis, the recruits may not develop as quickly or reach the level of competency expected by both the audience and their peers.

WWE isn’t hurting for cash and is more than capable of making big money offers to veterans should the need arise (see Rhodes, Cody). Unlike most of the past decade though, they’re no longer the sole destination capable of offering lucrative contracts and international television exposure. There’s now competition to access the external talent pipeline they’ve relied upon to comprise the majority of their roster for the past 12 years.

At some point in the near future, WWE will need to look outside their system for quality fresh acts to replace their aging stars, and AEW is an obvious place where they could come from. With two national touring promotions committed to producing eight hours of highly-rated television each week, the demand for talent will soon reach levels that haven’t been seen in decades.

The potential for young wrestlers to make life-changing money will have never been greater.