NJPW G1 Climax 31 Night 17 (October 18) A Block Final Preview, Statistics & Notes

The A Block of G1 Climax 31 reaches its… climax (I know, I’m sorry) on October 18 from Yokohama Budokan. On the surface, none of these individual matches come with massive rivalry or long term stories we’re used to on a block final night, but as a collective, they are the building blocks to a fascinating and satisfying ending. In one way or another, every tournament match on the card will matter in deciding who moves on from the block and into the final on October 21st at Budokan Hall.

Tomohiro Ishii vs. Toru Yano will have the lowest stakes of the evening. Neither of these wrestlers can win the block, and the outcome of this match only changes how many tiebreaker levels a wrestler would have to go through to win the block in one very particular tiebreaker scenario. Either way, these two are both playing for pride. Tomohiro Ishii is seeking his career high in G1 Climax points and Toru Yano looks to achieve double digits for just the third time in 16 G1 tournaments.

Shingo Takagi will enter his match with Yujiro Takahashi as a big favorite. Typically, Yujiro would be seen as no match for the IWGP World Heavyweight Champion, but after Yujiro’s victory over Jeff Cobb on last year’s final night, and with his involvement with the new House of Torture sub-faction of Bullet Club, it’s clear that anything is possible. Shingo needs to win to stay in the tournament, but the outcome of his match, at this point in the card will only effect Shingo.

Zack Sabre Jr will face Tanga Loa in the semi-main event. After years of tag team battles, Tanga Loa is, arguably, the most familiar with wrestler in the A Block with Zack Sabre Jr and potentially his largest threat so far in the tournament. Tanga Loa and Zack have only met once in singles action, but after dozens of tag matches, the odds may not be as far in Zack Sabre Jr’s favor as one would think as they look at the block standings.

There’s a pretty good chance that one of the wrestlers participating in the main event will be eliminated over the course of the card. This will be the first time a main event wrestler began the night with a chance to win a G1 Climax block, but was eliminated by the time the bell rung for his match. Regardless of who is alive, Kota Ibushi and KENTA will face off in the main event, and at least one of them will still have a chance to win the block if they are victorious. KENTA’s first NJPW singles match was against Kota Ibushi in Dallas to begin G1 Climax 29, and both wrestlers have come a long way since then. Kota Ibushi has won two G1 Climax tournaments, KENTA has joined Bullet Club and came into his own, challenging for major titles and accolades over the last 2 and a half years. Kota Ibushi will need some help to go to his fourth consecutive G1 Climax final match, but it’s not out of the question. By the way I’m looking at it, Shingo Takagi is an overwhelming favorite over Yujiro Takahashi and Tanga Loa has a good chance to defeat Zack Sabre Jr. If those two things happen, Ibushi controls his own destiny and if he wins, he heads to the final for the fourth year in a row.

If you’re interested in following along as the night plays out, there are elimination scenarios by match below the A Block Results To Date. If you’re interested in how or why each of those scenarios lead to a certain wrestler winning the block, scroll all the way down and you can see my full breakdown of tiebreakers in complete and ridiculous detail.

In daily preview posts, I am dissecting each tournament matchup, including 2021 and recent singles performance, individual head-to-head histories, and miscellaneous applicable research. Round robin tournaments are great equalizers for data: each wrestler competes in the same schedule throughout the tournament by facing each other wrestler once. So, as the tournament goes on and data points become more relevant, I’ll be including some advanced metrics and probabilities for each card as well. I’ll also help to dissect the complicated tiebreakers and other tournament nuances as they come up.

Find interactive tables for NJPW’s 2021, detailed results and statistics of all Every G1 Climax match to date, and This Year’s Tournament at SportOfProWrestling.com, and you can let me know what you find when you drill down by dropping me a line on Twitter @TheChrisSamsa.

NJPW G1 Climax 31 Night Seventeen (A Block Final)

Date: October 18, 2021

City: Kanagawa

Venue: Yokohama Budokan

Time: 6:30pm JST

Watch: NJPWWorld (With Live English Commentary)
Local Time Conversions:

G1 Climax 31: A Block Results To Date

Elimination Scenarios

Match Three: Shingo Takagi vs. Yujiro Takahashi

If Shingo Takagi wins, nobody is eliminated
If Shingo Takagi loses, Shingo Takagi is eliminated.

Match Four: Zack Sabre Jr vs. Tanga Loa

If Shingo Takagi won:
- If Zack Sabre Jr wins after a Shingo Takagi win, Kota Ibushi and Shingo Takagi are eliminated. KENTA and Zack Sabre Jr would still be in contention.
- If Zack Sabre Jr loses after a Shingo Takagi win, KENTA is eliminated. Shingo Takagi and Kota Ibushi would still be in contention.
If Shingo Takagi lost:
- If Zack Sabre Jr wins after a Shingo Takagi loss, Kota Ibushi is eliminated. KENTA and Zack Sabre Jr would still be in contention.
- If Zack Sabre Jr loses after a Shingo Takagi loss, Zack Sabre Jr is eliminated. KENTA vs. Kota Ibushi becomes the match to decide the block.

Match Five: Kota Ibushi vs. KENTA

If Zack Sabre Jr lost and Shingo Takagi Won:
- If Kota Ibushi defeats KENTA, Kota Ibushi wins the block at 14 points with a tiebreaker over Shingo Takagi.
- If KENTA defeats Kota Ibushi, Shingo Takagi wins the block at 14 points with a tiebreaker over KENTA.
If Zack Sabre Jr lost and Shingo Takagi Lost:
- The winner of KENTA vs. Kota Ibushi wins the block. The winner would be the only wrestler at 14 points to end the tournament.
If Zack Sabre Jr won and Shingo Takagi won:
- If Kota Ibushi wins, Zack Sabre Jr wins the block on head-to-head tiebreakers over both other wrestlers at 14 points.
- If KENTA wins, KENTA wins the block on second or third level tiebreakers, depending on the winner of Ishii vs. Yano.
If Zack Sabre Jr won and Shingo Takagi lost:
- If Kota Ibushi wins, Zack Sabre Jr wins the block on head-to-head tiebreaker at 14 points over Kota Ibushi.
- If KENTA wins, KENTA wins the block on head-to-head tiebreaker over at 14 points over Zack Sabre Jr.

G1 Climax 31: A Block Table

Key Tiebreakers

(Victories over wrestlers still in contention)

Kota Ibushi (12): Shingo Takagi (12)

Shingo Takagi (12): KENTA (12)

Zack Sabre Jr (12): Ibushi (12), Shingo Takagi (12)

KENTA (12): Zack Sabre Jr (12)

Main Event
G1 Climax 31 A Block Match
Kota Ibushi [12] vs. KENTA [12]

G1 Climax 31 – Tournament To Date

KENTA has progressed positively each year he has been in the G1. 8 in his first tournament, 10 last year, and at least 12 this year.
KENTA’s 19 minute and 28 second average match length is the third longest in the A Block. Only Tomohiro Ishii and Shingo Takagi have had longer tournaments than KENTA so far.
A longer match will benefit KENTA. His average winning match length is over 4 minutes longer than Kota Ibushi’s average win during this year’s tournament.
Kota Ibushi has extended his streak of double-digit G1 scores to 5 years. With a win tonight, he will be the first wrestler to ever score 14 points or more in three straight tournaments.
Kota Ibushi’s 4 match winning streak ties him with Tomohiro Ishii for the longest streak running in the A Block.
Kota Ibushi’s last four tournament average match lengths: 2020-18:13, 2019-19:33, 2018-19:48, 2017-16:49.
Ibushi’s 15:54 average match length is 2 minutes and 19 seconds shorter than his 2020 average, over 3 and a half minutes shorter than his 2019 average, and nearly 4 minutes shorter than is 2018 average.
Entering the G1 Climax tournament, Kota Ibushi’s average singles match length was 24 minutes and 24 seconds. During the tournament, Ibushi has averaged just 15:58. With a win/loss differential of negative 15 seconds, Ibushi has committed (or over-committed) to his strategy of ending his matches in a shorter duration.

Recent History – 2021 Singles

On average, it has taken Kota Ibushi 54 seconds longer to win matches than to lose matches in 2021. That is third-worst in NJPW so far this year.

Recent History – Last 365 Days Singles

Kota Ibushi’s 17 singles wins in the last 365 days are the second most in NJPW. Only Shingo Takagi (20) has more victories in that time.
KENTA’s 15 singles wins in the last 365 days are third most in NJPW.

Recent History – Last 90 Days Singles

In the last 90 days, Kota Ibushi and KENTA have the same win-loss record of 7-3. KENTA needed over 3 hours of ring time to accomplish this record while Ibushi has saved nearly 40 minutes over his opponent.

Recent History – 2021 Individual Overall

Head To Head History

KENTA began his NJPW career with a win in Dallas, Texas over Kota Ibushi to start the 2019 G1 Climax tournament.

History in Yokohama Budokan

This will be Kota Ibushi’s first appearance at Yokohama Budokan
KENTA is 1-0 in Yokohama Budokan. He defeated YOSHI-HASHI here last year during the G1 Climax on the eighth night of B Block matches.

G1 Climax – All Time

Ibushi has reached the finals in his last three G1 Climax tournaments. He is the only wrestler to ever reach three consecutive finals. Four straight would be unheard of but is certainly a possibility.
Ibushi won the last two G1 Climax tournaments, he is one of three wrestlers (Chono, Tenzan) to ever go back to back in the prestigious tournament.
During this year’s tournament, Kota Ibushi has surpassed Masahiro Chono for the 8th best all-time G1 winning percentage. Ibushi’s winning percentage sits at .631, surpassing Chono at .630.
Ibushi’s 16:59 average G1 winning match length is the second highest in the A block, only behind Shingo Takagi.
Kota Ibushi’s stamina and conditioning has been impressive through the last three G1 tournaments. His 2018, 2019, and 2020 tournaments are three of the six longest individual tournaments in G1 History. His average match length of 15:54 in this year’s tournament is over 3 minutes per match lower than his previous three tournaments’ combined average.

Individual G1 Climax Tournament Schedules

KENTA
(L) September 18, EDION Arena Osaka: KENTA vs. Toru Yano
(W) September 23, Ota City General Gymnasium: KENTA vs. Yujiro Takahashi
(W) September 26, Kobe World Hall: KENTA vs. Tomohiro Ishii
(L) September 30, Korakuen Hall: KENTA vs. Shingo Takagi
(L) October 3, Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium: KENTA vs. Great-O-Khan
(W-forfeit) October 7, Hiroshima Sun Plaza Hall: KENTA vs. Tetsuya Naito
(W) October 9, EDION Arena Osaka: KENTA vs. Zack Sabre Jr
(W) October 13, Xebio Arena Sendai: KENTA vs. Tanga Loa
October 18, Yokohama Budokan: KENTA vs. Kota Ibushi

Kota Ibushi
(L) September 18, EDION Arena Osaka: Kota Ibushi vs. Yujiro Takahashi
(W) September 23, Ota City General Gymnasium: Kota Ibushi vs. Tomohiro Ishii
(L) September 26, Kobe World Hall: Kota Ibushi vs. Zack Sabre Jr
(W) September 30, Korakuen Hall: Kota Ibushi vs. Toru Yano
(W) October 3, Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium: Kota Ibushi vs. Shingo Takagi
(W) October 7, Hiroshima Sun Plaza Hall: Kota Ibushi vs. Tanga Loa
(W) October 9, EDION Arena Osaka: Kota Ibushi vs. Great-O-Khan
(W-forfeit) October 13, Xebio Arena Sendai: Kota Ibushi vs. Tetsuya Naito
October 18, Yokohama Budokan: Kota Ibushi vs. KENTA