AEW returns to pay-per-view this Sunday with a huge AEW Revolution 2021 card. Last year established this show as AEW’s biggest pay-per-view of the year and this card looks like it could solidify that.
The last AEW pay-per-view, Full Gear, had a few matches that were real close in the betting odds. The Young Bucks won at -120 and Darby Allin won at +120, both were surprising in the moment and look almost silly now. For this show, the sportsbooks aren’t making the same mistake.
There isn’t a single favorite you can get at -120 for AEW Revolution 2021. The cheapest favorite is -160 and the second cheapest is -250. That’s not a lot of fun for these purposes, but there are a couple of underdogs that might be worth a risk.
As of this writing, there are only odds at BetOnline for five of the matches. The ones without odds are potentially the ones that could be the most fun to bet on (ladder match, casino battle royale) so hopefully, we get those odds at some point between now and Sunday. (My tips for those matches: mystery sixth man and Fenix & PAC.)
For now, let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks.
Odds at BetOnProWrestling.com are in American betting format. For those who don’t know what that means, a -300 favorite would mean that you would need to bet $300 to win $100 or that if you bet $100 then you could win $33.33. A +200 underdog means that a $100 bet could win $200.
Best Friends (-160) vs. Miro & Kip Sabian (+120)
This is the match with the lowest odds on the card. This is a deal where the story is the Best Friends need to win to finally put an end on this thing, but it’s also Miro who has been very protected and probably shouldn’t be losing a match at this point in his run. If this were WWE, Chuck would be turning. This isn’t WWE though and I think the logical ending is the best one because Kip Sabian is here.
Kip can lose, Miro can look strong, and the Best Friends can celebrate. Easy pick for the favorite.
Pick: Bet Best Friends -160
Adam Page (-350) vs. Matt Hardy (+225)
I find this to be the toughest on the card. If the odds were a bit lower I’d be all over Hangman, but the Matt Hardy odds are just so tempting. We know that Tony Khan loves this guy because he puts him on TV every week. Hangman is very protected as well, but losing his money could push him towards more of the sad sack of shit stuff they love to do with him.
That said, the logical thing is for Hangman to win. Matt Hardy got all those wins over Sammy Guevara that he shouldn’t have and I’d be surprised to see them do it that to Hangman. You can bet on Matt because the odds are nice, but I wouldn’t feel good about it.
Pick: Adam Page -350 is probably not worth it at the odds.
AEW World Tag Team Championship
Young Bucks (-250) vs. Chris Jericho & MJF (+170)
This feels far more storyline than match, much like the MJF and Jericho match at the last show. I can’t imagine AEW running a months-long storyline about MJF destroying the Inner Circle from within and one of the chapter beats being “win the tag titles over the Young Bucks”.
There are just too many tag teams to face and too much meat on the bone for the Bucks as champions for this title to become a prop in this Inner Circle story.
Pick: Bet Young Bucks -250. My lock of the night.
Darby Allin & Sting (-450) vs. Brian Cage & Ricky Starks (+275)
Darby and Sting are the second-biggest favorite of the night and for good reason. This is Sting’s debut. The money is in him putting someone over strong, but we’re not there yet. He needs to look strong and get a big win. Team Taz loses nothing in a loss here.
Pick: Darby Allin & Sting -450, but that’s a bit too pricey.
AEW World Championship
Exploding Barbed Wire Death Match
Kenny Omega (-550) vs. Jon Moxley (+325)
The conventional wisdom here is Omega retaining and Moxley heading off on maternity leave. With the rules of this match, it’s easy to see a lot of interference and Moxley being screwed in some way.
It is kind of weird to me just how accepted that is and how that is reflected in the odds. Tony Khan has basically said this is the blow-off which means Mox is going to be out of the title picture for a while. That’s hard to imagine, but it’s also too soon for Omega to lose this title.
Kenny Omega is such a huge favorite here that it’s almost worth a bet on Mox, but it’s hard to argue with the conventional wisdom. Skip the bet and enjoy the fireworks.
For more pro wrestling betting odds and tips, check out Bet On Pro Wrestling.