AEW is putting on one of their biggest PPVs ever with Full Gear this Saturday and BetOnline has betting odds on the entire card.
Betting odds have been available for each AEW pay-per-view since All Out to mixed results.
The biggest favorite in the brief history of AEW betting was Hikaru Shida at -770 against Thunder Rosa at All Out 2020. Shida retained there as the books simply didn’t believe in the former NWA Women’s Champion.
The biggest upset also came at AEW All Out when the team of Matt Cardona, Scorpio Sky, Dustin Rhodes & QT Marshall defeated the Dark Order at +300. That was weird at the time and remains weird to this day.
Kenny Omega has been involved in some huge upset wins as well. He was a +170 winner with Adam Page when they defeated the heavily favored Young Bucks at Revolution. He was also part of the first major upset in the company when PAC at +160 defeated him at All Out.
BetOnline has odds for all eight main card matches for Full Gear with only a few heavy favorites.
Odds at BetOnProWrestling.com are in American betting format. For those who don’t know what that means, a -300 favorite would mean that you would need to bet $300 to win $100 or that if you bet $100 then you could win $33.33. A +200 underdog means that a $100 bet could win $200.
Orange Cassidy (-950) vs. John Silver (+550)
The biggest favorite of the night is Orange Cassidy which says a lot about just how far he has come in the first year of AEW. He’s facing this year’s breakout star on BTE in what appears to be part of a bigger focus on the Beaver Boy.
Orange Cassidy remains one of AEW’s potential stars so you’d have to think that he is due for a win here after recent losses to Brodie Lee and Cody. That doesn’t mean that this one won’t be a good match, it’s just probably not worth putting a bet on.
Pick: Orange Cassidy, but the odds are too high to make it worth it.
MJF (-300) vs. Chris Jericho (+200)
This is only the second time Chris Jericho has been an underdog heading into a match in the short history of AEW betting odds. The other, his title match against Jon Moxley at Revolution, was a rather obvious losing scenario, but this one is not as cut and dry as that one was.
MJF dropped his last pay-per-view match to Jon Moxley which was his only loss in AEW history. He is a pretty big favorite here at 1/3.
This match is honestly more about the angle after the match/stipulation than who wins the match itself and it could go either way. Does MJF win and join? Or does AEW have something more elaborate in mind? The latter feels more likely, but it’s hard to know which way they will go with that.
Pick: No bet.
Matt Hardy (-160) vs. Sammy Guevara (+120)
The Deletion match is to Matt Hardy what the I Quit match was to John Cena. He’s yet to lose a match at the Hardy Compound in his career having defeated his brother Jeff in Final Deletion, defeated Decay with his brother Jeff in Tag Team Apocalypto, and then beat Bray Wyatt in the WWE-ized Ultimate Deletion. When his father-in-law and fireworks are involved, Matt Hardy wins.
That said, what is the point of Matt Hardy unless it is to help make the next generation of stars? He’s nearly twenty years older than Sammy. Matt got the win last time these two faced off with his career on the line. That was fine given the circumstances, but this should be Sammy’s time and he’s a great bet at this price.
Pick: Sammy Guevara +120
AEW TNT Championship
Cody Rhodes (-160) vs. Darby Allin (+120)
AEW has been very good at delivering the matches they advertise on big shows, but this could prove to be the exception to that rule as Taz and Team FTW all but promised they would be involved in some way here.
This will be the fourth singles match between these two and Cody has a 0-2-1 record in those match-ups. Cody’s betting record on pay-per-view is a bit weird as he has been a betting underdog in nearly all of his big matches. He was, unbelievably in hindsight, an underdog winner against Shawn Spears (+190) at All Out and an underdog winner against Lance Archer (+125) at Double or Nothing. Cody was also an underdog against both MJF and Jericho, two matches that most assumed he would lose and he did just that.
This definitely feels like it should be Darby’s moment. Another loss to Cody could be a killer for him and Cody doesn’t need this title. The second TNT title reign for Cody has felt like a rerun and it’s time for something new. Darby winning would not only be great for his career, but also great for AEW to put the title on a homegrown star instead of someone with WWE or Elite history.
Pick: Darby Allin +120
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AEW World Tag Team Championship
FTR (-120) vs. The Young Bucks (-120)
Overseas sportsbooks had FTR as a -278 favorite last week before the announcement of the Young Bucks’ win or never challenge against stipulation. Those odds shot down to close to even since then and now the BetOnline odds are right there as well.
The stipulation worked well with Cody last year and really added a ton to that match, but it also worked because AEW was able to add the TNT Championship down the road. I can’t imagine them adding the AEW U.S. Tag Team Championship down the road so the Bucks winning makes a lot of sense here.
That said, the Bucks have not been very successful on pay-per-view in the short AEW history. They were underdogs against Santana & Ortiz at last year’s Full Gear and lost, underdogs at All Out 2019 against Fenix & Pentagon and lost, and then big favorites against Page and Omega at Revolution and lost. They did get a win at All Out over Jurassic Express, but that wasn’t a match on nearly the scale as this or any of the losses.
The Bucks still feel like the right pick though. The stipulation here is not like when Cody did the stipulation, it’s to take advantage of the Cody stipulation. This match didn’t have a lot of heat and now it does. The Matt Jackson injury situation does create some doubt, but the right move is the right move. The Bucks winning is the right move.
Pick: Young Bucks -120
AEW Women’s Championship
Hikaru Shida (-200) vs. Nyla Rose (+150)
These odds are nearly a complete flip of Double or Nothing when the champion Nyla Rose was -200 against the challenger Hikaru Shida at +140. Much like that match, this looks like a nice spot to grab the underdog.
The AEW Women’s division is definitely in flux right now and the title going back to Rose feels like the move. The amount that Shida has been used over the past few months is telling and her title reign seems to have run its course as sad as that is.
Nyla’s first reign felt too short and her getting the title back for a true monster reign could be good for the division. Plus, it seems that her and Vickie Guerrero can get the TV time that Shida hasn’t been getting.
Pick: Nyla Rose +150
Kenny Omega (-500) vs. Adam Page (+300)
Sometimes AEW’s booking makes too much sense to bet on and this is one of those matches. The Kenny Omega rise to the title has been a long time coming and it would be pure insanity for them to stray from it here.
Especially when you consider just what this feud between the two can be. It has been relatively heatless thus far with Omega simply saying he doesn’t want to team anymore and the two meeting in a tournament final without any sort of real confrontation. Joe has said on the Flagship that this feud will carry AEW in 2021 and it’s hard to disagree. That starts with a Kenny win here.
Pick: Kenny Omega -500 is a bit pricey, but it’s a lock.
AEW World Championship
I Quit Match
Jon Moxley (-700) vs. Eddie Kingston (+400)
Eddie Kingston has been so amazing in this feud and this build-up that it’s hard not to root for him simply because you want more of that. More of those promos, more of that intensity, more of Eddie. He’s been better than ever in the build to this and the payoff has the chance to be something special.
That said, Mox deserves to be a favorite of this size because he’s the AEW World Champion. One thing that has been proven over the course of AEW is that they want this title to be prestigious. They want a lineage that they can be proud of and they’ve allegedly mapped out who it’s going to go long in advance. Would they change that for Eddie Kingston?
If this match was on a different show than the one where Kenny Omega is going to earn an AEW World Championship shot, the answer might be yes. However, Mox as champion and Omega earning a shot against him on the same show that these two went to war at one year ago is just too perfect and feels too planned not to happen.
Pick: Jon Moxley -700 is too expensive to bet.
For more pro wrestling betting odds and tips, check out Bet On Pro Wrestling.