OCELOT Ratings (The Build to WWE WrestleMania 31) – Update #1
April 7, 2014 – Monday Night Raw – New Orleans, Louisiana at the Smoothie King Center
It’s Day One of the “Road to WWE WrestleMania 31”.
We’ll start everyone at 1,600 OCELOT* points. In each match, we’ll give points to the winner(s) and take points from the loser(s).
Since we have some degree of specialization in WWE, we’ll treat people’s singles and tag records separately. Also, we’ll weigh the televised shows much heavier than the live events. Likewise, winning and losing a title will have some additional impact. Lastly, we’ll give more credit for clean wins than those that involved disqualifications. (My dataset, compiled from information gathered from CageMatch, isn’t robust enough to account for “interference” or other forms of chicanery that truly distinguish “clean” from “dirty”.)
Here’s the WWE/NXT win-loss records over the last ten months:
Let’s begin with the SINGLES OCELOT standings:
And the TAG OCELOT standings:
(*OCELOT stands for Overly Complicated ELO Theorem.)
All data was calculated through January 23, 2015 (so right before the Royal Rumble). I don’t include Rumble or Handicap matches in my OCELOT calculations.
How’d we get here?
- PPV: x30
- RAW: x24
- SmackDown: x18
- NXT Special: x12
- NXT TV, Main Event, WWE Network Special, Tribute to the Troops: x9
- Superstars: x6
- Non-televised match/live event: x3
- Is a Title Change: x1.5
- Clean Win: +1.0
- Win via Count-Out/DQ/Forfeit/Ref’s Decision: +0.75
- Draw: +0.5
- Loss via Count-Out/DQ/Forfeit/Ref’s Decision: +0.25
- Clean Loss: +0.0
Singles Match Example
- Friday Night Smackdown #780 – taped 7/29/14: R-Truth (OCELOT 1573.8) defeats Bo Dallas (OCELOT 1696.2) via DQ
- Qa = 10^(1574/400) = 8598; Qb = 10^(1696/400) = 17401
- Likelihood that R-Truth wins = Qa/[Qa+Qb] = 8,598 / 25,999 = 33%
- Points_Chg = ( [Outcome] – [ Qa / (Qa + Qb) ] ) * K-Value
- Points_Chg for R-Truth = ( [0.75] – [ 0.33 ] ) * 18 = +7.56 points / Points_Chg for Bo Dallas = ( [0.25] – [0.67] ) * 18 = -7.56 points
- New OCELOT for R-Truth = 1573.8+7.6 points = 1581.3 points; New OCELOT for Bo Dallas = 1696.2 – 7.6 points = 1688.7 points
Tag Match Example
- WWE Superstars #297 – taped 12/15/14: Cesaro (OCELOT 1535.9) & Tyson Kidd (OCELOT 1565.2) defeat Diego (OCELOT 1575.2) & Fernando (OCELOT 1567.4)
- Qa = 10^(average(1535,1565))/400) = 7524; Qb = 10^(average(1575,1567))/400 = 8478
- Likelihood that Cesaro & Kidd win = Qa/[Qa+Qb] = 7524/ 16002 = 47%
- Points_Chg = ( [Outcome] – [ Qa / (Qa + Qb) ] ) * K-Value
- PointS_Chg for Cesaro & Kidd = ( [1.0] – [0.47] ) * 6 = +3.18 points; Points for Los Matadors = ( [0.0] – [0.53] ) * 6 = -3.18 points
- New OCELOT of Cesaro = 1535.9+3.2 = 1539.1 points; New OCELOT of Tyson Kidd = 1565.2 + 3.2 = 1568.4 points
- New OCELOT for Diego = 1575.2-3.2 = 1572.1 points; New OCELOT for Fernando = 1567.4 – 3.2 = 1564.2 points
Notes of Interest:
- Seth Rollins and Cesaro in a two-man race for the hardest working man in WWE show biz. The “average time per match” metric does demonstrate how much higher on the totem poll is Seth (16:17) than Cesaro (11:00).
- Rusev is understandably the highest rated singles wrestler due to his impressive win streak. He’s at a point where he’s actually at a point where he can lose points even when he wins a match, if he doesn’t win the match cleanly. For instance, on the August 25 Raw, Rusev (1782 OCELOT) was heavily favored to win his match against Jack Swagger (1534). When the match ended by referee’s decision, that outcome was worth 0.75 which was actually less than his predicted 80% likelihood of winning. So, Swagger actually gained +1.4 points even though he lost the match!
- Adam Rose’s quiet singles win streak (60-2 through end of October in singles competition) was slowing gaining him ELO points and putting him ahead of true giants like John Cena until things started to go sour in October.
The matches which had the great point changes in the evaluation period were title changes:
- 5/4/2014 Extreme Rules 2014 Intercontinental Title: Bad News Barrett defeats Big E (c) (7:56) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 6/29/2014 Money in the Bank 2014 WWE World Heavyweight Title Ladder Match (vacant): John Cena defeats Alberto Del Rio and Bray Wyatt and Cesaro (w/Paul Heyman) and Kane and Randy Orton and Roman Reigns and Sheamus (26:30) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 6/30/2014 WWE Monday Night RAW #1101 WWE Divas Title: AJ Lee defeats Paige (c) (1:04) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 8/17/2014 SummerSlam 2014 Intercontinental Title: Dolph Ziggler defeats The Miz (c) (7:52) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 8/17/2014 SummerSlam 2014 WWE Divas Title: Paige defeats AJ Lee (c) (4:57) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 8/17/2014 SummerSlam 2014 WWE World Heavyweight Title: Brock Lesnar (w/Paul Heyman) defeats John Cena (c) (16:06) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 9/21/2014 Night of Champions WWE Intercontinental Title: The Miz (w/Damien Mizdow) defeats Dolph Ziggler (w/R-Truth) (c) (9:18) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 9/21/2014 Night of Champions WWE Divas Title Triple Threat: AJ Lee defeats Paige (c) and Nikki Bella (8:45) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 11/17/2014 WWE Monday Night RAW #1121 Intercontinental Title: Luke Harper defeats Dolph Ziggler (c) (8:28) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 11/23/2014 Survivor Series 2014 WWE Divas Title: Nikki Bella (w/Brie Bella) defeats AJ Lee (c) (0:34) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
- 12/14/2014 WWE TLC 2014 Intercontinental Title Ladder: Dolph Ziggler defeats Luke Harper (c) (16:42) – TITLE CHANGE !!!
What does all this mean?
Here’s the top 25 singles (based on their last score – as of 1/23/15):
- 1. Rusev: 1790.6 singles OCELOT
- 2. John Cena: 1734.5 singles OCELOT
- 3. Roman Reigns: 1720.9 singles OCELOT
- 4. Baron Corbin: 1697.1 singles OCELOT
- 5. Adrian Neville: 1686.6 singles OCELOT
- 6. Sheamus: 1679.4 singles OCELOT
- 7. Seth Rollins: 1677.6 singles OCELOT
- 8. Nikki Bella: 1673.3 singles OCELOT
- 9. Ryback: 1671.5 singles OCELOT
- 10. Bad News Barrett: 1669.4 singles OCELOT
- 11. The Big Show: 1667.2 singles OCELOT
- 12. Dolph Ziggler: 1664.9 singles OCELOT
- 13. Paige: 1659.6 singles OCELOT
- 14. El Torito: 1656.6 singles OCELOT
- 15. AJ Lee: 1656.1 singles OCELOT
- 16. Charlotte: 1653.8 singles OCELOT
- 17. Bull Dempsey: 1643.5 singles OCELOT
- 18. Dean Ambrose: 1640.2 singles OCELOT
- 19. Bray Wyatt: 1639.4 singles OCELOT
- 20. Natalya: 1638.8 singles OCELOT
- 21. Big E: 1637.8 singles OCELOT
- 22. Hideo Itami: 1627.8 singles OCELOT
- 23. Kalisto: 1626.4 singles OCELOT
- 24. Stephanie McMahon: 1626.3 singles OCELOT
- 25. Brock Lesnar: 1623.5 singles OCELOT
and the bottom 15:
- 143. Zack Ryder: 1547.9 singles OCELOT
- 144. Jack Swagger: 1544.2 singles OCELOT
- 145. Heath Slater: 1537.8 singles OCELOT
- 146. Xavier Woods: 1536.9 singles OCELOT
- 147. Alberto Del Rio: 1536.1 singles OCELOT
- 148. Rob Van Dam: 1535.2 singles OCELOT
- 149. Fandango: 1531.2 singles OCELOT
- 150. Summer Rae: 1526.2 singles OCELOT
- 151. Curtis Axel: 1520.7 singles OCELOT
- 152. Stardust: 1516.3 singles OCELOT
- 153. Justin Gabriel: 1504.3 singles OCELOT
- 154. Kane: 1504 singles OCELOT
- 155. Titus O’Neil: 1478.9 singles OCELOT
- 156. Cesaro: 1455.7 singles OCELOT
- 157. Damien Mizdow: 1430.3 singles OCELOT
Some of these wrestlers (Ryder, Slater, Woods, Axel) you’d expect to see at the bottom of the heap. However, Cesaro’s low singles OCELOT rating just underscores how much he’s been demoted in the last ten months. Meanwhile, it’s not too surprising that #1 (Rusev) and #2 (Cena) for the singles OCELOT rating are rumored to be facing off at WrestleMania. And #3 (Reigns) just won the Royal Rumble. (For those wondering, Bryan Daniel finished #26 at 1623.4.) The fact that both Brock and Stephanie McMahon show up on this list underscores how there is no penalty for inactivity.
What about tag teams?
- 1. Roman Reigns: 1718.2 tag OCELOT
- 2. Dean Ambrose: 1709.8 tag OCELOT
- 3. John Cena: 1695.8 tag OCELOT
- 4. Jimmy Uso: 1686.3 tag OCELOT
- 5. Jey Uso: 1685.2 tag OCELOT
- 6. Naomi: 1680.7 tag OCELOT
- 7. Dolph Ziggler: 1678.3 tag OCELOT
- 8. El Torito: 1671.3 tag OCELOT
- 9. Natalya: 1668.5 tag OCELOT
- 10. Viktor: 1666.4 tag OCELOT
- 11. Konnor: 1666.4 tag OCELOT
- 12. Kalisto: 1661.1 tag OCELOT
- 13. Paige: 1660.2 tag OCELOT
- 14. Kofi Kingston: 1660.1 tag OCELOT
- 15. Emma: 1657.8 tag OCELOT
- 16. Sin Cara: 1654.4 tag OCELOT
- 17. Xavier Woods: 1651.5 tag OCELOT
- 18. Big E: 1649.7 tag OCELOT
- 19. AJ Lee: 1639.9 tag OCELOT
- 20. The Big Show: 1628.1 tag OCELOT
- 21. Mark Henry: 1624.1 tag OCELOT
- 22. Hideo Itami: 1623.1 tag OCELOT
- 23. Becky Lynch: 1621.9 tag OCELOT
- 24. Finn Balor: 1621.6 tag OCELOT
- 25. Simon Gotch: 1621.6 tag OCELOT
Interesting, it’s the dark match face trio (Cena/Ambrose/Reigns) who are leading the pack followed by the tag team champions – the Usos. It’s interesting to see both the Ascension and El Torito on the list. One is an jobber-stomping tag team and the other is a bull. I know which one I’d rather have on my side!
On the flipside, here’s the bottom 15 tag OCELOT scores:
- 143. Erick Rowan: 1556.2 tag OCELOT
- 144. Drew McIntyre: 1555.4 tag OCELOT
- 145. Goldust: 1553.8 tag OCELOT
- 146. Summer Rae: 1551.7 tag OCELOT
- 147. Tyson Kidd: 1551.6 tag OCELOT
- 148. Rosa Mendes: 1545.4 tag OCELOT
- 149. Cameron: 1541.9 tag OCELOT
- 150. Hornswoggle: 1535.7 tag OCELOT
- 151. Randy Orton: 1533.1 tag OCELOT
- 152. Cesaro: 1523.1 tag OCELOT
- 153. Titus O’Neil: 1511.3 tag OCELOT
- 154. Kane: 1508.2 tag OCELOT
- 155. Heath Slater: 1503.9 tag OCELOT
- 156. Curtis Axel: 1496.4 tag OCELOT
- 157. Luke Harper: 1494.4 tag OCELOT
Ouch. Luke Harper’s house show tag records included only one tag match victory (Rowan & Harper beat Truth & Henry on Nov 2 in Syracuse). He lost the 68 other tag team matches at live events. The losses really chipped away at his OCELOT score. Other fellas at the bottom of the list are more familiar tag team fall-guys: Axel, Slater, Kane, Titus and Cesaro. Randy Orton’s appearance is a bit more surprising, but stems from the days when he was an authority henchman and tagging with Seth Rollins or Kane against Big Show, Ambrose and Ziggler. There was also a string of shows right after WrestleMania where Orton was teamed up with RybAxel in losing efforts against a still-united Shield.
Like any Wrestlenomic statistic calculating wrestler value based on wins and losses in a pre-determined activity, these numbers mean as little or as much as you want to pretend they do. It’s a fun analysis of who is getting the “rub”, but whether it truly predicts anything in the future remains to be seen. It’s a fun exercise for pro-wrestling math-geeks like me.
Chris Harrington is the host of the Wrestlenomics podcast and tweets a lot (@mookieghana) about WWE Network metrics and George Barrios conferences. You can read his recent analysis of “WWE’s Five Keys for a Successful 2015″ over at Seeking Alpha.